The Chicago Cubs (35-22) host the Cincinnati Reds (29-29) on Saturday, May 31, 2025. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
Find my Reds vs Cubs prediction and the latest Reds vs Cubs odds in my MLB betting preview for Saturday afternoon below.
Reds vs Cubs Prediction, Pick Today
- Reds vs Cubs Pick: Over 7.5 (-102 · Play to -110)
My Cubs vs. Reds best bet for Saturday is for both teams to go over the total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Cubs Odds, Lines
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 7.5 -102o / -122u | +150 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 7.5 -102o / -122u | -180 |
Reds vs Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Nick Lodolo (CIN) | Stat | LHP Drew Pomeranz (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | W-L | 2-0 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 3.39 / 3.99 | ERA /xERA | 0.00 / 4.01 |
| 3.67 / 3.90 | FIP / xFIP | 2.29 / 4.09 |
| 1.10 | WHIP | 0.55 |
| 16% | K-BB% | 23.4% |
| 44.8% | GB% | 29.6% |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 100 | Location+ | 106 |
Reds vs Cubs Preview, Prediction
Reds Betting Preview, Insights
Nick Lodolo has gotten off to a strong start this season. That said, his underlying metrics suggest regression is looming.
Entering this matchup, the left-hander ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. That expected regression could come to fruition against Chicago.
Through six career starts against the Cubs, Lodolo owns a 5.29 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP.
Following Lodolo is a fade-worthy bullpen. This season, Cincinnati’s relief staff ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA, fielding independent pitching (FIP), expected FIP (xFIP) and wins above replacement (WAR).
Cubs Betting Preview, Insights
The good news for the Reds’ pitching staff is that it should receive plenty of run support against Ben Brown, who will pitch on Saturday in a bulk role after opener Drew Pomeranz.
Cincinnati ranks in the top half of the league in runs per game, hits per game, slugging percentage and OPS.
Meanwhile, Brown is experiencing a classic sophomore slump. Through 11 appearances, the right-hander owns a 6.39 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP.
His analytics suggest those struggles are likely to continue. Brown ranks in the bottom third of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Furthermore, Brown has consistently been shelled by the Reds. In three career meetings, he's 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.
Reds vs Cubs Pick, Betting Analysis
Like Lodolo, Brown should receive ample run support. Chicago boasts arguably the best lineup in baseball, ranking first in both runs per game and hits per game.
The Cubs have also torched Lodolo. In 85 combined plate appearances against him, the current Chicago roster owns a .319 batting average, a .556 slugging percentage and a .422 weighted on-base average (wOBA).
The only reason this total is as low as 7.5 is that the wind is projected to blow in from left-center. However, it's not strong enough to offset the other variables.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-105 · Play to -110)
Moneyline
I lean toward Chicago, but I don't want to back Brown.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like Chicago to cover, but I'm staying away for the same reason listed above.
Over/Under
I'm betting over 7.5. I think both of these offenses can take advantage of the opposing pitchers' struggles.
