The Miami Marlins host the Cincinnati Reds on April 8, 2026. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CINR.
The Marlins are favored by -136 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Reds are +113 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find our MLB picks and Reds vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Reds vs Marlins Prediction
- Reds vs Marlins Pick: Under 7.5 (-115)
Our Reds vs Marlins best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Marlins Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -199 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +113 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +163 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -136 |
- Reds vs Marlins spread: Marlins -1.5 (+163), Reds +1.5 (-199)
- Reds vs Marlins over/under: 7.5 (-105o/ -115u)
- Reds vs Marlins moneyline: Reds +113, Marlins -136
Reds vs Marlins Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Brady Singer (CIN) | Stat | RHP Eury Perez (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 0-1 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.2 |
| 5.00/6.18 | ERA /xERA | 5.73/5.57 |
| 3.71/3.31 | FIP / xFIP | 6.70/4.98 |
| 1.56 | WHIP | 1.27 |
| 16.7% | K-BB% | 10.6% |
| 39.3% | GB% | 26.9% |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 115 |
| 91 | Location+ | 86 |
Reds vs Marlins Preview
The Cincinnati Reds head into the third installment of this four-game set with significant momentum, having secured victories in the first two contests.
Tuesday’s win was a dramatic affair that extended Cincinnati's winning streak to five games. After chasing Miami ace Sandy Alcantara, the Reds benefited from an Anthony Bender wild pitch with two outs in the ninth to force extra innings. Nathaniel Lowe then delivered a go-ahead single in the tenth, sparking a four-run surge that silenced the Miami crowd.
On the mound today, the Reds turn to right-hander Brady Singer. While his 5.00 ERA over his first start might seem pedestrian, he showed flashes of efficiency last time out by surrendering only two earned runs across five innings of work.
Singer aims to maintain the high standard set by a Reds rotation that has been the backbone of their recent success.
He faces a Marlins lineup that is desperate to snap their current slide but must first contend with Singer’s sinking fastballs and improved command.
The Miami Marlins counter with Eury Perez, a talented right-hander looking to stabilize his early-season numbers.
Perez enters with a 5.73 ERA and is coming off a rocky outing against the Yankees where he struggled significantly with his control, issuing six walks.
Interestingly, Perez takes the mound against the very franchise he made his major league debut against, providing a layer of familiarity to this high-stakes matchup.
If Perez can find the zone and limit the free passes, he has the electric stuff necessary to halt the Reds' hot streak and keep the Marlins within striking distance.
Reds vs Marlins Picks
When evaluating the total for this matchup, the most compelling evidence points toward the Under 7.5, specifically when applying the "Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams" system by Evan Abrams.
This strategy focuses on matchups where both clubs maintain winning percentages between 51% and 100%, yet the betting public is heavily skewed toward the over, with 35% or fewer of bets placed on the under. The logic behind this system is that oddsmakers frequently inflate totals for successful teams to account for perceived offensive firepower.
However, winning teams typically possess superior pitching depth and demonstrate much tighter defensive execution in the late innings, which naturally leads to lower-scoring games than the public expects.
Because these two squads have shown they can grind out low-scoring affairs—evidenced by the 2-0 shutout earlier in the series—there is a distinct mathematical edge in fading the public's desire for runs.
Despite the occasional late-inning explosion, the combination of Singer’s steady presence and Perez’s motivation to bounce back suggests that pitching will dictate the tempo.
Trust the system and look for a disciplined, low-scoring battle that stays well below the 7.5-run threshold.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-115)
