The New York Mets host the Cincinnati Reds on July 18, 2025. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FDSOH.
Find my MLB betting preview and Reds vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Reds vs Mets Prediction
- Reds vs Mets pick: Mets ML -164 (Play to -175)
My Reds vs Mets best bet is Mets moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Mets Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -157 | 8 -116o / -105u | +138 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +128 | 8 -116o / -105u | -169 |
Reds vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Nick Lodolo (CIN) | Stat | LHP Sean Manaea (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | W-L | 0-1 |
| 1.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 3.38 / 3.97 | ERA /xERA | 2.70 / 1.85 |
| 4.02 / 3.88 | FIP / xFIP | -1.12 / -0.23 |
| 1.11 | WHIP | 1.50 |
| 16.9% | K-BB% | 46.7% |
| 43.1% | GB% | 37.5% |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 106 |
| 100 | Location+ | 125 |
Tony Sartori's Reds vs Mets Preview
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview: Lodolo's Falling Off
Nick Lodolo is a good sell-high candidate. His first half of the season has gone well, with a 3.38 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through 19 starts.
However, his underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming in the second half of the campaign. Lodolo ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
If this expected regression comes to fruition, his bullpen is unlikely to bail him out. Entering this matchup, Cincinnati’s relief corps ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA, fielding independent pitching (FIP), expected FIP (xFIP) and WAR.
The Reds may also struggle to produce runs against Sean Manaea. Through 62 combined plate appearances against the left-hander, the current Cincinnati roster possesses a .173 batting average and .291 weighted on-base average (wOBA).
New York Mets Betting Preview: Manaea Hasn't Lost a Step
The clear hitting advantage in this matchup goes to New York. This season, the Mets outrank the Reds in on-base percentage (OBP), slugging percentage (SLG), OPS and home runs.
Furthermore, this Mets roster boasts a .429 SLG and .512 expected SLG (xSLG) through 16 combined plate appearances against Lodolo.
One question mark for New York is Manaea, who pitched just 3 1/3 innings in his season debut. That said, he racked up seven strikeouts and looked sharper than his surface-level numbers suggest.
In that outing, Manaea generated a 1.85 xERA, limited hard contact at an exceptionally high rate and didn't allow a single barreled ball.
He’s likely to continue that impressive pitching against the Reds, a team he's 2-0 against through four meetings with a 3.60 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.
With the pitching and hitting edge, the Mets are the team to back.
Reds vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
While New York possesses an advantage in both hitting and starting pitching, its clearest edge is in the bullpen. This season, the Mets’ relief corps ranks in the top half of the league in ERA, FIP, xFIP and WAR.
They outrank the Reds in all four of those categories.
Add in home field, and there’s little reason to believe that New York won’t come out of the All-Star break on a high note.
Pick: Mets ML -164 (Play to -175)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I'm betting on the Mets moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like New York to cover, but I find more value in just taking the outright moneyline price.
Over/Under
I lean toward the over, but I don't want to fade Manaea.
