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The Chicago White Sox host the Cleveland Guardians on October 8, 2026. First pitch from Rate Field is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on HBO Max.
The White Sox look to close out its 2-1 series lead in front of their home crowd in what would be the team’s first trip back to the ALCS since 2005.
Left-hander Parker Messick will take the mound for Cleveland, while Chicago will trot out fellow southpaw Hagen Smith.
The Guardians are favored by -118 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The White Sox are +100 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Guardians vs White Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Guardians vs White Sox Prediction
- Guardians vs White Sox Pick: White Sox ML (+100), Munetaka Murakami HR (+360)
My Guardians vs White Sox best bet is Chicago to win outright and Munetaka Murakami to hit a home run. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Guardians vs White Sox Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7.5 -100o / -122u | -118 |
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 7.5 -100o / -122u | +100 |
- Guardians vs White Sox moneyline: Guardians -118, White Sox +100
- Guardians vs White Sox over/under: 7.5 (-100o / -122u)
- Guardians vs White Sox spread: Guardians -1.5 (+150), White Sox +1.5 (-182)
Guardians vs White Sox Probable Pitchers
| Parker Messick (LHP, CLE) | Stat | Hagen Smith (LHP, CHW) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-9 | W-L | 0-0 |
| 4.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 2.56 / 3.13 | ERA / xERA | 1.42 / 2.45 |
| 3.07 / 3.37 | FIP / xFIP | 3.57 / 4.29 |
| 22.2 | K-BB% | 22.7 |
| 44.3 | GB% | 43.4 |
| .333 | BABIP | .192 |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 107 |
| 106 | Location+ | 100 |
Guardians vs White Sox MLB Betting Preview
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview
After dropping its first two playoff games, the Guardians got back on track Wednesday afternoon, stealing Game 3 in Chicago with a stellar nine-run effort.
If the Guardians prevail in Game 4, they will earn the chance to play Game 5 in front of a packed home crowd at Progressive Field on Saturday night.
Messick had a phenomenal second season in the majors, posting an elite 2.56 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, both of which rank in the top 8 in baseball this season.
Cleveland’s left-hander made his first career postseason start this past Saturday in ALDS Game 1 and surrendered two earned runs over 4 1/3 frames.
Despite a sluggish postseason start, Guardians superstar Jose Ramirez bounced back in impressive fashion on Wednesday with a 2-hit effort that also included two runs and two RBIs.
Guardians OF Jo Adell has led the charge for this lineup, recording three hits and four RBIs over his last two games, including a triple in each.
For a lineup that features four left-handed hitters, including leadoff Steven Kwan, Ramirez, and 23-year-old power hitter Chase DeLauter, Cleveland could definitely use another huge day at the plate from Adell, who won't give up a platoon edge to lefty Messick.
If the Guardians are to reign supreme tonight at Rate Field, righty Gavin Williams is expected to take the mound in Game 5 as Cleveland vies for a return to the ALCS after nearly winning the American League pennant in 2024.
Chicago White Sox Betting Preview
The fan-favorite White Sox have taken this postseason by storm, winning their first four games behind a spectacular effort from an extremely young, versatile lineup, before suffering their first defeat in ALDS Game 3 on Wednesday afternoon.
After scoring 20 runs in its first four playoff games, the Sox fell 9-3 as the bullpen allowed four runs in the final two innings.
Despite just 18 appearances on the mound to kick off his rookie campaign, Hagen Smith has been phenomenal, posting a 1.26 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 28 innings in 2026.
While the White Sox pitching staff has been very efficient over its first five postseason games, their lineup has been scorching hot from 1-to-9, with every hitter contributing to this improbable run so far.
Lefty slugger Munetaka Murakami has rediscovered his elite form at the plate after a monster first half of his 2026 campaign and a very underwhelming second half.
With a young lineup featuring elite contact hitters like Chase Meidroth and Miguel Vargas, among others, this Chicago team is built for postseason success.
If the Sox want to stay red-hot and avoid losing consecutive games for the first time in the MLB playoffs, they will need to get to Parker Messick early so he can't establish any rhythm on the mound.
Guardians vs White Sox Pick, Betting Analysis
Despite how impressive this Guardians team has been all season, I favor the White Sox on Thursday night, given how hot this lineup has been, plus Smith, who has been borderline unhittable on the mound.
From a betting perspective, I feel confident backing Chicago on the moneyline to advance to its first ALCS since the Ozzie Guillen-led 2005 World Series team.
As a secondary betting angle, I'm also willing to take a shot on Murakami to smash a homer, building upon what has been a spectacular rookie season for the former NPB star.
Pick: White Sox ML (+100), Munetaka Murakami Home Run (+360, FanDuel)
