By the end of the night, we could know who will playing in the LCS in each league as the White Sox, Dodgers, Rays, and Brewers are all one win away from advancing.
However, two players that will be looking to stave off elimination are Tyler Mahle and Ben Rice, along with Yandy Diaz.
Check out my favorite MLB player prop picks today for Wednesday, October 7.
MLB Player Props Today
- Tyler Mahle Over 13.5 Outs Recorded (46%, Kalshi)
- Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (74%, Kalshi)
- Ben Rice Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (75%, Kalshi)
Dodgers vs Braves Player Prop
At the trade deadline, the Braves were linked to several high-profile pitchers as they were looking to add rotation help behind Chris Sale. While they struck out with the big names, they did land Tyler Mahle from the Giants. The move did not make many headlines because Mahle was 3-9 with a 5.13 ERA and negative WAR with the Giants this season. However, he turned out to be one of the best deadline acquisitions.
Mahle finished the regular season 4-1 with 1.99 ERA with 48 strikeouts in 54 and 1/3 innings, resulting a 1.8 WAR. His dominant stretch extended into the postseason, as he struck out six over seven innings and allowed just one run on six hits in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series against the Phillies. Mahle has now gone at least five innings in all 10 of his starts with the Braves and six innings in eight of them.
Given the pressure and panic being down 2-1, Mahle's leash may be a bit short today. However, he has had success against the powerful Dodgers' lineup, with a scoreless seven-inning start against them in each of the last two years. His path to success tonight will start with him keeping them in the park, as the Dodgers have scored all 10 of their runs in this series via home runs.
Additionally, the Braves were only able to get five innings out of Chris Sale last night. While all hands will be on deck in an elimination game, the Braves will be better off the deeper Mahle can go, provided he is pitching well. Given that we only need him to work into the fifth inning today, he should be able to clear this line by recording at least 14 outs.
Pick: Tyler Mahle Over 13.5 Outs Recorded (46%, Kalshi)
Rays vs Yankees Player Prop
Like the Braves, the Yankees find themselves facing elimination and former Brave Max Fried is expected to get the start. However, that may not exactly be a good thing for the Yankees' chances. Over the last nine seasons, Fried has a 2.99 ERA and 31.1 WAR in the regular season, but that has not translated to the postseason, where he has a career 5.03 ERA in 82 1/3 innings. He has allowed three or more runs in four of his last six postseason starts, with the Red Sox the only team he has been able to shut down.
Fried may not be long for this game, but perhaps for a different reason, as he and his girlfriend are expecting a baby. Fried confirmed he will be starting tonight, but it would not be a surprise if he left the stadium early to be with his family. Rather than fading Fried directly, I am targeting Diaz instead.
Diaz has recorded a hit in each of his last four games against the Yankees, and he notoriously beats up on left-handed pitching. Fried has given him more difficulty than most, but he does have four hits against him. However, in general, Diaz loves facing the Yankees and even wasted no time mentioning that the Rays clinched the AL East at Yankee Stadium.
Diaz has 47 runs scored, 21 doubles, 13 home runs, and 57 runs batted in while slashing .272/.356/.424 in 106 games against the Yankees. More recently, he has cleared this line in 10 of his last 14 games against the Yankees. Whether it is against Fried or a reliever, I like him to get there tonight.
Pick: Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (74%, Kalshi)
Rays vs Yankees Player Prop
In addition to their shoddy defense, the Yankees find themselves in a 0-2 hole after scoring two runs on five hits through the first two games. Rice is responsible for two of the hits, both solo home runs. On Monday, he became the first Yankees player to have two multi-home-run games in the same postseason.
Now, he returns home where he hit 22 of his 41 home runs in the regular season and had a .917 OPS. He has recorded a hit in eight of his last 10 home games. Tonight, he will face Nick Martinez, and he is 4-for-9 (.444) against him with three doubles and two RBI.
Martinez was stellar in the regular season, but as a pitch-to-contact pitcher, he is not immune to allowing traffic on the basepaths. He allowed 19 hits in 16 and 2/3 innings against the Yankees this season. Cody Bellinger and Austin Wells are a pair of Yankees' lefties that also have good numbers against Martinez.
However, it is hard to trust too many of the Yankees' bats other than Rice right now. Rice has recorded two hits, runs, and runs batted in in four of his last five games and in six of his last nine against the Rays.
Pick: Ben Rice Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (75%, Kalshi)
