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The Milwaukee Brewers (2-1) and San Diego Padres (1-2) meet tonight in their NL Division Series, with Game 4 set to start at 10:00 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego, Calif. The game will be broadcast live on Fox Sports 1 and can be traded on Polymarket.
The Brewers are favored by -1.5 against the spread, with the over/under set at 7.5. The Padres are the preferred trading option, while the Brewers are short underdogs.
Find my MLB picks and Brewers vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Brewers vs. Padres Predictions, Odds
Brewers vs. Padres Picks
Picks: Brewers to Win (48.5 cents), Walker Buehler Under 11.5 Outs (99 cents), Jackson Merrill "No" on the Over 2 H+R+RBI (46 cents, Polymarket)
Brewers vs Padres MLB Betting Preview
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
The Brewers couldn't complete the sweep last night in San Diego, and now we have a crucial Game 4 as the Padres try to survive.
Milwaukee is setting up Jacob Misiorowski for that Game 5, but that doesn't mean we won't see the big man tonight. If they smell blood, you could see the big man come out and finish up the game to send them to the NLCS.
In an ideal world, the Brewers would like to wrap this series up tonight with a bullpen game, then get extra days of rest while lining up their best starters for the start of the NL Championship Series.
Our best guess is that tonight we'll see Aaron Ashby (LHP), Robert Gasser (LHP), Shane Drohan (LHP), and Chad Patrick (RHP). They'll be able to play the matchups with those multi-inning options from the left side, and a pretty effective right-handed reliever in Patrick.
The Brewers didn't have the league's best bullpen this year, but it's a solid unit, and it's managed very well.
Milwaukee bats have it easy tonight. The Padres rotation was their biggest issue this year. They used Michael King for two innings last night, and now they're forced to send Walker Buehlerto the hill, at least to start.
I don't see Buehler going very far in this one with the Padres in a must-win situation. Buehler has had just an 11.7% K-BB% this year while allowing 22 homers.
He keeps the ball on the ground pretty well, and it's a good park to pitch in, but he throws the ball right into the Brewers' approach. Milwaukee wants to take walks and rack up base hits. It's relatively easy to do that against Buehler.
My take here is that Buehler goes through the lineup once and then comes out. I don't think it will matter if he's pitching well. This isn't a guy they can feel good about.
I'm eyeing up Walker Buehler Under 11.5 Outs. The Padres didn't use Morejon or Miller last night, so we'll see them tonight.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
The Padres' advantage is that they're a pretty right-handed lineup. Jackson Merrill is a lefty and has just a .316 xwOBA and .723 OPS against lefties this year. But the rest of the big bats come at you from the right side.
Fernando Tatis Jr. hit .309/.400/.583 against lefties this year. Ty France hit .288/.365/.483. And Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts reside in the right-handed batters box. So in a way, they match up just fine in this spot, especially at home where they've played so well.
I found one I like on Polymarket: Jackson Merrill 2+ Hits+Runs+RBI NO. It's a bet on Merrill seeing several nasty lefties.
That's going to be the Brewers' approach by necessity. Ashby is going to pitch, and he is awesome. Drohan and Gasser are also very tough on lefties.
I don't like Merrill's spot at all, and he hits lower in the order, so we can possibly avoid a fourth or fifth at-bat for him tonight.
Brewers vs Padres Pick, Betting Analysis
It's tough to win ballgames in San Diego. However, the Brewers are the better team, and they get to see Buehler at least one time through the lineup tonight.
I think they put pressure on him early and get into that bullpen. The Padres bullpen is very good, but they aren't sitting there with five elite arms who can cover 7-8 innings. They don't have Michael King available, either.
So the Brewers will get several innings to score runs when they aren't up against Miller (who they had a read on in Game 2 anyway) or Morejon.
And the Brewers are the underdog on Polymarket as of right now. I like that a lot. So I've found three picks in my investigation here.
Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Trades: Brewers to Win (48.5 cents), Walker Buehler Under 11.5 Outs (99 cents), Jackson Merrill "No" on the over 2 H+R+RBI (46 cents, Polymarket)
