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We have a packed 4-game slate on deck as the MLB Division Series continue today in both the National and American leagues.
We have picks for Guardians vs. White Sox at 4:00 p.m. ET, Dodgers vs. Braves at 6:00 p.m. ET, Rays vs. Yankees at 8:00 p.m. ET, and Brewers vs. Padres at 10:00 p.m. ET.
Read below for our 4 MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, October 7.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:00 PM | |
  | 6:00 PM | |
  | 8:00 PM | |
  | 10:00 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
BARTOLO's Guardians vs White Sox Top Edges
By Sean Zerillo
BARTOLO shows solid value on the Guardians moneyline and the total for this matchup, with a 4.4% edge favoring Cleveland and a 5.1% gap on the under.
The model projects the visitors for 3.95 runs and the local White Sox for 3.26 this afternoon, bringing the total (7.21) under the 8 line.
If you want to dive deeper into this game, check out BARTOLO, Zerillo's new PRO baseball tool that gives you access to all the input data he uses to project games every day.
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Pick: Guardians ML (+100) / Under 8 (-118)
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Sean Paul's Dodgers vs Braves Prop Pick
By Sean Paul
I don't feel solid on either side, with the Dodgers sitting as -150 road favorites. One play did catch my eye, though.
That's a strikeout prop from Dodgers starter Tyler Glasnow, whose strikeout prop is over/under 6.5 — and I like the over.
For one, the Braves have been very strikeout-prone in this series. Tarik Skubal recorded seven strikeouts, Blake Snell had five, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto had 10 in his Game 3 gem.
That should be ideal for Glasnow in the potential clincher. Since returning from injury on August 25th, coincidentally against the Braves, Glasnow has struck out 7+ hitters in four of his five outings.
He was pretty incredible in his 13 starts this year, posting a 3.53 ERA with a 2.86 xERA and 2.74 FIP. He also racked up 2.4 fWAR and boasts an 11.92 K/9.
I just can't see the Braves doing much damage against Glasnow, and if he pitches 5+ innings, he should lock in seven strikeouts.
Looking at the Braves roster, they finished 20th with a 21% strikeout rate this year.
Five hitters from yesterday's lineup have a strikeout rate above 21%, with Lane Thomas leading the way with 32% and Austin Riley at 31%. Those two alone could get Glasnow a few easy strikeouts, while Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson have some swing-and-miss in their game.
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Pick: Tyler Glasnow Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110)
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Matt Trollo's Rays vs Yankees Best Bets
By Matt Trollo
Last season (2025) was Rays SP Nick Martinez’s first since returning to the league in 2022 with a reverse split, but only by 11 points.
He’s faced the Yankees three times this season, all with just great surface results, but completely different peripherals:
- 4/11: 4.2 IP – 22 BF – 5 H – 1 R – 1 HR – 3 BB – 4 K – 6.7 GB% – 2 BR – 53.3 Hard%
- 5/22: 6 IP – 26 BF – 9 H – 1 R – 1 HR – 1 BB – 1 K – 37.5 GB% – 1 BR – 45.3 Hard%
- 9/22: 6 IF – 24 BF – 5 H – 2 R – 1 HR – 1 BB – 7 K – 26.7 GB% – 1 BR – 25 Hard%
The only patterns to be drawn are that home runs were the only real damage, and there was a lot of elevated contact.
Against Martinez’s reverse split, if George Lombard is the only right-handed Yankee bat, he doesn’t exceed a 90 wRC+ at home, against RHP, or over the last month. The three Yankee home runs against Martinez were hit by Austin Wells, Austin Wells, and Cody Bellinger. Hmm…
Wells, 97 wRC+ and .156 ISO v RHP, but 148 wRC+ in September, is +590 (15%) to homer on Novig as of this writing (bet price), probably not enough value for a guy who will bat near the bottom of the order and only get 3-4 attempts (or two against Martinez).
Just for fun, let’s go with the three-player H+R+R SGP, including every Yankee who has homered against Martinez this year (Wells 2, Bellinger), plus another with a double in their last meeting (Rice).
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Pick: Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Austin Wells 2+HRR Parlay (+581)
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Brewers vs Padres Bet Labs Featured System
By Bet Labs
The "Unders with Soft Starters and Neutral Winds" system targets unders in MLB games where softer home starting pitchers—low strikeout rates and moderate WHIP—are on the mound in Games 3 or 4 of a series, which is the scenario for this Brewers vs. Padres matchup.
By this point in the series, hitters have seen multiple arms and scouting reports are sharper, yet scoring remains muted when the matchup lacks overpowering velocity, and winds remain neutral.
The setup avoids exaggerated run environments by filtering out strong directional wind influence, keeping offensive surges in check.
With the home team in the middle of the season grind, winning at a modest clip, the market may overlook how often these quiet conditions lead to slower-paced, low-scoring outcomes.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-117)
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