Friday MLB Cubs vs. Dodgers Betting Odds, Preview, Prediction: Where Is Betting Value After Chicago’s Combined No-Hitter? (June 25)
Mark Cunningham/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Kris Bryant.
- The Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers battle on the West Coast once again Friday in Major League Baseball action.
- The Cubs' pitchers combined to toss a no-hitter against one of the best lineups in baseball on Thursday, but can they back up that stellar performance?
- Kevin Davis explains below why he's avoiding sides and picking a total for the game.
Cubs vs. Dodgers Odds
|Over/Under||9.5 (-110 / -110)|
|Time||10:10 p.m. ET|
Last night as +240 underdogs against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Chicago Cubs pitched combined a no-hitter with a lackluster Zach Davies taking the mound to start. On Friday, the Dodgers are heavily favored once again.
Despite Los Angeles being a heavy favorite in most of its games this season, it has virtually the same record as Chicago. The Cubs are 42-33 and tied for first place in the NL Central, while the Dodgers are 44-31 and tied for second in the NL West.
What’s interesting about the Dodgers from a betting angle is that despite their winning record, if you blindly bet their moneyline in every game this season, you would be down 7.24 units for a -9.7% ROI, which is the worst among teams with a winning record. The Cubs are a sharp contrast in that if you blindly backed their moneyline in every game this season, you would be up 8.83 units for a +11.8% return on investment.
However, it’s not as simple as fading the Dodgers and betting the Cubs. Chicago is giving the ball to a struggling Jake Arrieta as its starting pitcher, and Los Angeles is relying on its bullpen. There are two questions for the game: Can Chicago upset Los Angeles again and will we see a high-scoring contest?
Where Do the Cubs Go After No-Hitter?
While Arrieta won the NL Cy Young with Chicago in 2015, he has been a completely different pitcher since returning to Chicago from Philly this season. Arrieta owns a 5-8 record with a 5.45 ERA and a -0.3 WAR. However, he also has a 4.74 xFIP, which while high, suggests that he is not nearly as bad as his basic stats indicate.
If Arrieta can pitch five innings and allow only two or three earned runs, then the Cubs have a path to victory. Chicago’s bullpen has a 3.91 xFIP, the seventh-best in Major League Baseball. With a strong bullpen, the Cubs could hold the Dodgers’ lineup at bay.
Backing up Arrieta and the Cubs bullpen is a lineup that has played decently this year. Chicago’s hitters average 4.33 runs per game, which is only .08 less than the average MLB team.
While Chicago has gotten strong performances out of Willson Contreras, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rizzo, the rest of the lineup has been below-average offensively.
Dodgers Look for Bullpen to Befuddle Cubs
Opposing Arrieta and the Cubs is Los Angeles starter Tony Gonsolin. It might be debatable that Gonsolin is a starting pitcher, as he’s averaging only three innings per start this season. In his last two starts, Gonsolin pitched for 3 2/3 innings and allowed only one earned run.
While Gonsolin has put together strong performances in his limited outings this season, the Dodgers are vulnerable for most of the game, which is likely to be handled by the bullpen.
Los Angeles’ bullpen has a 4.17 xFIP, which is close to the MLB median bullpen xFIP of 4.19. As a heavy favorite, backing the Dodgers could be beneficial because like a box of chocolates, you don’t know what you are going to get.
Even though the pitching is questionable for the Dodgers in tonight’s game, their lineup is not. Los Angeles’ lineup averages 5.07 runs per game, which is the most in the National League and second-most in baseball.
Even though they were recently without Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy for a significant period of time, both Bellinger and Muncy have returned to the Dodgers’ lineup. If Los Angeles wins, it will be because its lineup takes advantage of Arrieta.
Even though my gut is telling me the Cubs could upset the Dodgers again in tonight’s game, my model does not give an edge to any team. Surprisingly, my model likes the under for several reasons.
While Arrieta is a liability against a strong Dodgers lineup, the Cubs have a strong bullpen. Additionally, Gonsolin and Los Angeles’ bullpen should be able to control a relatively average Chicago lineup.
That’s why I’m betting that under 9.5 runs will be scored at -110 and would bet it up to -120 odds.
Pick: Under 9.5 Runs (Play to -120)
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