The Cleveland Guardians host the Minnesota Twins on July 23, 2026. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MNNT.
The Guardians are favored by -130 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Twins are +110 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Twins vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Twins vs Guardians Prediction
Twins vs Guardians Picks
- B. Buxton Over 1.5 TB
- MIN/CLE F5 Under 4.5
Twins vs Guardians Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +180 | 7.5 -124o / +102u | +110 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -223 | 7.5 -124o / +102u | -130 |
- Twins vs Guardians moneyline: Twins +110, Guardians -130
- Twins vs Guardians over/under: 7.5 (-124o / +102u)
- Twins vs Guardians spread: Guardians -1.5 (+180 ), Twins +1.5 (-223)
Twins vs Guardians Probable Pitchers
| RHP Taj Bradley (MIN) | Stat | RHP Gavin Williams (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-4 | W-L | 10-5 |
| 1.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.8 |
| 3.85 / 3.91 | ERA / xERA | 4.00 / 4.39 |
| 3.99 / 3.89 | FIP / xFIP | 3.86 / 3.09 |
| 17.8% | K-BB% | 22.3% |
| 33.7% | GB% | 45.8% |
| .280 | BABIP | .286 |
| 109 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 91 | Location+ | 105 |
Twins vs Guardians MLB Betting Preview
Story:Buxton to Stay Hot in Return from IL
The Guardians will host the Twins on Thursday afternoon in the last of a four-game homestand at Progressive Field in Cleveland.
26-year-old right-hander Gavin Williams will take the mound for the Guardians, while righty Taj Bradley is set to start for the visiting Twins.
Below, I will break down this matchup and further provide a “same-game-parlay” (SGP) betting angle that you can take when wagering on Tuesday’s divisional clash.
Minnesota Twins: Byron Buxton Total Bases
For the first leg of our SGP for Thursday afternoon, I favor backing Twins’ slugger Byron Buxton to have a massive day at the plate.
Despite the Guardians’ Williams finishing his 2025 campaign in stellar form with the fourth-year starter having recorded a magnificent 3.06 ERA across 31 starts, the 26-year-old has struggled mightily to repeat last year’s successes in 2026.
In his first 20 starts in 2026, Williams has recorded a troublesome 4.00 ERA on the mound, having surrendered 53 earned runs (ER) in under 120 frames on the bump.
Despite Twins’ superstar OF Byron Buxton having just returned from the 15-day Injured-List (IL) as the latter half of the 2026 season just commenced, the 32-year-old picked up right where he left off before the break, having recorded four hits across seven plate appearances (PA) since his return to the field.
In addition to Buxton’s 2026 heater with the Twins’ veteran having already smashed 25 homers and driven in 45 runners (RBIs) across his 77 games played this season, he has dominated the Guardians’ right-hander in the two’s several previous encounters.
In 10 previous at-bats (AB) versus Williams, Buxton has recorded four hits, including a double, and two RBIs as well.
While the Guardians’ right-hander often elects to challenge right-handed hitters with his four-seam fastball, this is a pitch that Buxton consistently thrives against with an optimal swing-path tailor-made for smashing high-velocity pitches.
Williams has also struggled with command at times throughout his 2026 campaign thus far, which has resulted in his frequently missing his “spots” which could prove fatal if he leaves his heater or slider over the heart of the plate versus a slugger of Buxton’s caliber.
That said, I expect Buxton to exceed his 1.5 Total Base (TB) mark to be a solid foundation for our SGP ahead of Thursday afternoon’s AL Central showdown.
Pick:Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Total Bases
Twins vs Guardians F5 Pick
For those who have read any of my previous SGP articles, you would know that I typically favor pairing two negatively correlated wagers given the inverse relationship between the two results in a magnification of the parlay’s odds on the back-end.
That said, I feel great backing the first-five (F5) run total to go under on Thursday afternoon, which should provide us with a solid value parlay given its negative correlation with Buxton's success at the plate.
While Williams has been largely inconsistent over the course of his 2026 campaign, he has been quite efficient with the Guardians’ righty ranking inside the top-25 amongst starters with a 1.15 WHIP on the season.
On the other hand, Twins’ righty Taj Bradley has been slightly more effective on the mound in 2026 than his Thursday counterpart with the 25-year-old currently posting a 3.85 ERA on the season thus far.
The former-Ray has also struggled with consistency over the course of his young Major League career to date, yet had been on quite the heater prior to his last start versus the Cubs.
Given both lineups are struggling with injuries- most notably the Guardians’ superstar Jose Ramirez, who still remains on the IL, I expect this to be a good spot to target both starters to keep runs at a premium over Thursday’s first five (F5) innings, which is why I will be taking a shot on fewer than five runs to be scored over that duration.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5
