Diamondbacks vs. Mariners Odds, Preview, Prediction: Seattle Can Make Up Ground In Playoff Race (Saturday, September 11)
Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Madison Bumgarner
Diamondbacks vs. Mariners Odds
|Over/Under||8 (-110 / -110)|
|Time||9:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Mariners’ fight for the postseason will continue on Friday night when Seattle plays host to the ice-cold Diamondbacks with a chance to move up in the AL West standings. With a late announcement as to which starter they’ll go with, the Mariners may be trying to play a psychological game with the Diamondbacks, but Arizona could have the last laugh with a left-hander of its own on the hill.
So, who has the edge in this west-coast showdown? Let’s take a look at the matchup.
It’s hard to say much about the Diamondbacks, a team which has not really had many highlights since the first month of the season. They’ve lost 10 out of 11 games, and just lost three straight to these very Mariners. It’s hard to really elaborate much more than that, but to give you an idea of how the Diamondbacks are hitting, they rank dead last in the league over the last two weeks with a 65 wRC+. That’s very bad!
One guy who started in that previous Mariners series and was lit up to the tune of five runs on five hits and five walks over six innings was Madison Bumgarner, who will start on Friday. The veteran had a nice stretch in the middle of the summer, but he’s begun to break down of late. Bumgarner has now allowed 14 earned runs in his last three starts, which have spanned 16 innings. Over that span, he’s walked a whopping 12 hitters.
That’s a continuation of what we’ve seen all year, a guy who has pitched to a 4.36 xERA with a 37.5% hard-hit rate. There have been good moments, but we’re in one of those bad stretches.
The Mariners’ playoff hopes weren’t looking so hot, then they swept the Diamondbacks in Arizona. As of now, they’ve won six of eight and sit 5 1/2 games back of the Astros for first out West. It’s not as if a 96 wRC+ over the last two weeks is amazing, but Seattle has been disciplined at the plate. It’s walked 11.2% of the time over that span, which has been a driving force behind the offense.
During that time, the bullpen has also been lights out with a 2.54 ERA. That marks fourth-best in the entire league, and that number is backed by a shiny 3.14 FIP.
One of the starters who has been so good for the Mariners, but has slipped of late, is Friday’s starter Marco Gonzales. His 5.00 xERA has never made him a favorite of the betting community, but it’s hard to deny the August he had. The lefty had a 1.58 ERA in six starts, walking just six and striking out 27 in 40 innings.
The elephant in the room here is that the Mariners don’t exactly hit lefties well. They rank 26th in the league by wRC+, which would make them a tough bet against Madison Bumgarner. With that being said, they not only had success against Bumgarner lately but are in a great position given his recent form.
The big factor here should be the Mariners’ propensity for the walk, which will work well against a pitcher who’s had some serious control problems. I expect another tidy start for Gonzales against a bad offense, and a big win for Seattle as it tries to gain ground in the AL West.
Pick: Mariners ML (-150)