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The Philadelphia Phillies host the Tampa Bay Rays on September 27, 2026. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 3:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on RAYS.
The Phillies are favored by -158 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Rays are +133 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Rays vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Rays vs Phillies Prediction
- Rays vs Phillies Pick: Nick Martinez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+112, FanDuel)
My Rays vs Phillies best bet is Nick Martinez to stay under his strikeout prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Phillies Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -188 | 6.5 -118o / -104u | +132 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 6.5 -118o / -104u | -156 |
- Rays vs Phillies moneyline: Rays +133, Phillies -158
- Rays vs Phillies over/under: 7 (-125o / -105u)
- Rays vs Phillies spread: Phillies -1.5 (+145 ), Rays +1.5 (-172)
Rays vs Phillies Probable Pitchers
| Nick Martinez (RHP) | Stat | Zack Wheeler (RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 15-5 | W-L | 13-5 |
| 2.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.9 |
| 2.94/3.91 | ERA / xERA | 3.06/2.91 |
| 3.97/4.43 | FIP / xFIP | 3.34/3.03 |
| 11.8 | K-BB% | 22.7 |
| 35.8 | GB% | 43.2 |
| .259 | BABIP | .270 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 107 | Location+ | 107 |
Rays vs Phillies MLB Betting Preview
I want the under on Nick Martinez's strikeout prop.
Yesterday's game should be a good indicator of what to expect from Martinez.
The Rays' Saturday starter, Griffin Jax, pitched just three innings and threw just 52 pitches. With Tampa Bay locking in as the No. 1 seed in the AL, it's just playing out the schedule.
The Rays would be smart to exercise caution since they're already without ace Shane McClanahan. Martinez would start either game one or game two of the ALDS. There's no reason to waste bullets in a meaningless game.
In general, Martinez focuses more on location and getting quick outs, as his 5.48 K/9 shows.
The Phillies are one of the best bat-to-ball teams in the league, ranking 29th with an 18% strikeout rate since August 15th. Losing Luis Arraez to an injury makes Philadelphia slightly more prone to the swing-and-miss, but Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, Trea Turner, and Justin Crawford all have a strikeout rate below 20%.
I expect a brief outing from Martinez as a tune-up. And the Phillies tend to be aggressive, which should limit his strikeouts.
Pick: Nick Martinez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+112, FanDuel)
