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Sunday is when baseball is played before the sun sets, and this afternoon we're getting you right with a trio of our favorite prediction market strikeout props on both Polymarket and Kalshi.
Check out my favorite MLB player prop picks today for Sunday, September 27 and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
MLB Player Props Today
- Jared Jones 8+ Strikeouts
- Nick Martinez Under 3.5 Strikeouts
- Max Scherzer 6+ Strikeouts
Pirates vs Tigers Player Prop
This month, very few players have pitched as well as Pirates hurler Jared Jones. It's all coming together for the hard-throwing righty, who owns a 1.37 ERA in 25 innings and 37 strikeouts in his last four starts, including eight Ks in each of those starts.
Let's make it five to end the season, shall we? I think Jones reaches 8+ strikeouts once again, because Pirates manager Don Kelly seems willing to push Jones late in the year, as he threw 90 pitches in his last outing.
When you combine Jones's swing-and-miss ability with the Tigers' strikeout woes (24% strikeout rate in their past 40 games), he should get near that eight-strikeout mark once again.
Diving into the Tigers lineup, Jones has several players he can rack up Ks against. Since August 15th, Spencer Torkelson is punching out 32% of the time, while Brett Callahan, Ben Malgeri, Javier Baez and Dillon Dinger go down on strikes more than 25% of the time.
Pick: Jared Jones 8+ Strikeouts
Rays vs Phillies Player Prop
Let's pivot to the Rays and Phillies, where I want the under on Nick Martinez's strikeout prop.
Yesterday's game should be a good indicator on what to expect from Martinez.
Ray' Saturday starter Griffin Jax pitched just three innings and threw just 52 pitches. With Tampa Bay locking in as the No. 1 seed in the AL, it's just playing out the schedule.
The Rays would be smart to exercise caution since they're already without ace Shane McClanahan. Martinez would start either game one or game two of the ALDS. There's no reason to waste bullets in a meaningless game.
In general, Martinez focuses more on location and getting quick outs, as his 5.48 K/9 shows.
The Phillies are one of the best bat-to-ball teams in the league, ranking 29th with an 18% strikeout rate since August 15th. Losing Luis Arraez to an injury makes Philadelphia slightly more prone to the swing-and-miss, but Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, Trea Turner, and Justin Crawford all have a strikeout rate below 20%.
I expect a brief outing from Martinez as a tune-up. And the Phillies tend to be aggressive, which should limit his strikeouts.
Pick: Nick Martinez Under 3.5 Strikeouts
Reds vs Blue Jays Player Prop
Firstly, how awesome is it for Max Scherzer to try hunting down Justin Verlander on the all-time strikeout list? Scherzer is pitching a largely meaningless game on short rest, which could be his final MLB outing, but he's leaving the door open to returning.
I like Scherzer to get 6+ strikeouts in this one. He won't reach Verlander, who has 10 more than Scherzer, but he'll get close enough.
Given that Toronto has no chance of making the playoffs, Scherzer is doing one thing: Hunting strikeouts. Who needs to pitch efficiently with nothing else on the line?
Scherzer might lack the velocity and raw stuff that he did in his prime, but he still can strike hitters out from time to time. He struck out seven Orioles in his last outing and 10 against Seattle last month. In between those, Scherzer had three straight games with three or fewer punch outs. It's been very hit or miss, but I think it'll be more hit in his season finale.
The Reds will oblige, as they're a heavy strikeout team, ranking 2nd in MLB with a 26.5% strikeout rate in their last 40 games.
Pick: Max Scherzer 6+ Strikeouts
