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The New York Yankees host the Baltimore Orioles on September 27, 2026. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on YES.
The Yankees are favored by -136 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Orioles are +113 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find our MLB picks and Orioles vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Orioles vs Yankees Prediction
- Orioles vs Yankees Pick: Under 7.5 (-108)
Our Orioles vs Yankees best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page. Be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Orioles vs Yankees Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | +113 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +159 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | -136 |
- Orioles vs Yankees moneyline: Orioles +113, Yankees -136
- Orioles vs Yankees over/under: 7.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Orioles vs Yankees spread: Yankees -1.5 (+159), Orioles +1.5 (-194)
Orioles vs Yankees Probable Pitchers
| Shane Baz (RHP, BAL) | Stat | Elmer Rodriguez (RHP, NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-15 | W-L | 0-3 |
| 3.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 4.11/4.26 | ERA / xERA | 5.40/5.55 |
| 3.63/4.31 | FIP / xFIP | 4.86/5.53 |
| 11.8% | K-BB% | 4.0% |
| 37.9% | GB% | 48.1% |
| .309 | BABIP | .296 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 103 | Location+ | 84 |
Orioles vs Yankees MLB Betting Preview
The Baltimore Orioles wrap up their regular season with a road matchup against the New York Yankees in a rubber match to determine their three-game series.
Baltimore holds a 79-82 record overall and a 40-40 mark on the road, while ranking 10th in the American League with a team slugging percentage of .396.
On the mound for the Orioles, right-hander Shane Baz gets the nod. Baz enters with a 6-15 record, a 4.11 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and 154 strikeouts on the season. He faces a tough task considering his career struggles against New York, where he holds a 0-3 mark with a 6.48 ERA across eight prior starts.
New York comes into the regular-season finale sitting at 93-68 overall with a strong 46-34 record on their home field.
The Yankees will use this final game to fine-tune their roster before turning their focus toward hosting the American League Wild Card series opening on Tuesday against the Boston Red Sox.
Top pitching prospect Elmer Rodriguez takes the hill for New York. The 22-year-old right-hander already made his big-league debut earlier this season against Texas and looks to showcase his deep pitch mix once again.
New York has dominated the head-to-head matchup overall this year, claiming victory in nine of the previous 12 meetings.
First pitch was moved up to 1:05 p.m. ET to get ahead of an incoming nor'easter system that is slated to bring heavier rain and hazardous conditions later in the day.
Orioles vs Yankees Pick, Betting Analysis
The top betting angle for this matchup relies on a proven trend highlighted by expert Evan Abrams known as the "Wind Blowing In" system.
When winds travel inward between 5 and 35 mph, high fly balls lose momentum, significantly suppressing deep air carries and home run production.
This trend focuses specifically on betting the under in games with posted totals ranging between 6 and 11 runs. It serves as a strong weather-driven market strategy that exploits environmental elements that oddsmakers frequently under-adjust for when setting open lines.
Weather reports at Yankee Stadium call for sustained inward winds between 15 and 18 mph coming from the south/southeast out of left field throughout the early afternoon.
These heavy sustained gusts will knock down elevated fly balls, restricting power metrics and creating a much friendlier backdrop for both starting pitching staffs and bullpen arms. Combined with potential overcast skies and damp conditions ahead of the incoming storm, offense will be at a premium.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-108)
