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It’s the final day of the MLB regular season!
A 15-game Sunday slate with everything on the line: 10 teams are in, and 2 playoff spots are still up for grabs.
Read below for our 5 MLB Best Bets for Sunday, September 27.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:05 PM | |
  | 3:05 PM | |
  | 3:05 PM | |
  | 3:07 PM | |
  | 3:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Charlie Wright's Orioles vs Yankees Weather-Based Bet
This game got moved up because of weather concerns.
There's a chance they did it to make sure they get 5 innings in before wrapping up the season. More rain is coming in the afternoon.
The game doesn't mean anything for either team. It's disgusting weather, with cool temps and winds blowing straight in.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-120)
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Action PRO's Astros vs Athletics Hitter Prop
By Action PRO
Jeremy Pena enters Sunday on a massive heater. The Astros shortstop put on a show during Saturday's 13-2 blowout victory over Athletics, racking up four hits in a dominant effort.
Over his previous 10 games, Pena has been on fire at the plate, going 16-for-46 with a double, a triple, five home runs, and eight RBIs.
Action PRO projections favor to keep his momentum going projecting him for 1.96 hits in Sunday's matchup.
Compared to his current prop line set at over/under 1.5 hits, this projection creates a strong 21.1% edge against the market. That value gives the over an A grade in the projection system, making the Over 1.5 hits the premier play for this big matchup.
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Pick: Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 Hits (+168)
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Sean Paul's Rays vs Phillies Pitching Prop
By Sean Paul
I want the under on Nick Martinez's strikeout prop.
Yesterday's game should be a good indicator of what to expect from Martinez.
The Rays' Saturday starter, Griffin Jax, pitched just three innings and threw just 52 pitches. With Tampa Bay locking in as the No. 1 seed in the AL, it's just playing out the schedule.
The Rays would be smart to exercise caution since they're already without ace Shane McClanahan. Martinez would start either game one or game two of the ALDS. There's no reason to waste bullets in a meaningless game.
In general, Martinez focuses more on location and getting quick outs, as his 5.48 K/9 shows.
The Phillies are one of the best bat-to-ball teams in the league, ranking 29th with an 18% strikeout rate since August 15th. Losing Luis Arraez to an injury makes Philadelphia slightly more prone to the swing-and-miss, but Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, Trea Turner, and Justin Crawford all have a strikeout rate below 20%.
I expect a brief outing from Martinez as a tune-up. And the Phillies tend to be aggressive, which should limit his strikeouts.
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Pick: Nick Martinez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+112)
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Grant Neiffer's Reds vs Blue Jays Home Run Pick
Max Scherzer is getting what is possibly one last start for his career (on short rest).
Scherzer is one of the all-time greats, and I'm sad to see him go, but at this point in his career, he's a gas can for power, allowing above-average power to both sides of the plate.
I have the true odds on Elly De la Cruz around +350.
Pick: Elly De La Cruz 1+ Home Run (+410)
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BARTOLO's Diamondbacks vs Padres Over/Under Pick
By Action Network Staff
Petco Park's defining weather feature is its marine layer, and it's the central piece of the BARTOLO model's read on tonight.
The default evening pattern at Petco is a light onshore wind out of the southwest, typically 6 to 12 miles per hour, blowing out toward left-center — but carrying dense, cool, marine-influenced air that suppresses fly-ball carry rather than helping it. That combination is a big reason Petco consistently ranks as one of the tougher home run environments in baseball; the only real exception is a warm, dry, offshore-flow day, which is rare and not the pattern in play this afternoon.
With the typical onshore marine setup expected, the BARTOLO model's weather-adjusted outlook projects a total of 7.16 runs, comfortably under tonight's line.
The matchup context supports leaning into that read rather than fighting it. Both offenses have been middle-of-the-pack to below-average scoring clubs for most of the season, and with San Diego already settled into its playoff seed, there's little added incentive for the Padres to push for extra runs late in a game that's otherwise low-stakes.
Between the suppressive marine air Petco is known for, two offenses that haven't been scoring at a high clip, and a Padres club without much urgency in the season's final games, the under profiles as the side with the edge today.
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Pick: Under 8
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