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Diamondbacks vs. Mets Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Chris Bassitt and New York in Home Opener (April 15)

Diamondbacks vs. Mets Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Chris Bassitt and New York in Home Opener (April 15) article feature image
Credit:

Via Greg Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Bassitt

  • The Mets are home favorites in a Friday matinee game against the Diamondbacks.
  • Arizona's bats have started the season cold, but is this a good buy-low spot for them?
  • Nick Martin breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Diamondbacks vs. Mets Odds

Diamondbacks Odds +195
Mets Odds -245
Over/Under 8
Time 1:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

After a very promising 5-2 start on the road in Washington and Philadelphia, the New York Mets will return home to play their home opener against the Arizona Diamondbacks to kick-off what should be a very exciting Jackie Robinson Day.

Chris Bassitt will draw the big start for New York in what will be the 33-year-old righty’s home debut. Bassitt was tremendous against the Nationals Saturday and will look to keep it going against a D-Backs lineup which has begun the season ice cold.

Righty Zach Davies will get the ball for the Diamondbacks. Davies was torched consistently at the end of last season but put together a surprisingly strong five innings against the Padres to begin his season.

Will the New York Mets send their fans home happy in this favorable spot?

Can the Diamondbacks Offense Find Its Form?

For a team that figures to have well below average starting pitching this season, a return to form from offseason acquisition Zach Davies would go a long way toward going over their preseason win total of 66.5.

Davies was one of the league’s worst pitchers last season, pitching to a 6.31 xERA and an xwOBA of .376 in a large sample of 2577 pitches. He walked 11.2% of batters faced and was Hard Hit 43.3% of the time.

Davies did pitch to a solid 4.41 QOPA in his opening start against the Padres, walking three and allowing two earned runs in five innings pitched.

To see Davies post better than average numbers this season would still be very surprising, and I would not look too much into the results over a single contest.

Over 31 and 16 at-bats respectively against Zach Davies, both Starling Marte and Eduardo Escobar have slugged .429%. No other Mets have a sample of more than six at-bats.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks have started the season slowly, as is expected from a group projected by ZiPS to produce 4.35 runs per game this season.

Through a tiny six-game sample of 219 AB’s the D-Backs hold a league-worst 63 wRC+ of 63 and a wOBA of .257.

Bassitt Off to a Strong Start for the Mets

The Mets have had the perfect response to the tough loss of Jacob DeGrom, as the starting staff has began the season in dominant fashion, while the new-look batting order has produced very effectively.

Last season, Bassitt was a very reliable starting option for the Athletics, pitching to a strong xERA of 3.42, with an xwOBA of .286 and a 6.1 BB rate.

Bassitt was dominant in his first start of the season against the Nationals and offered no reason to expect regression from last season’s strong results, pitching to an xERA of 1.57 and allowing zeros where it counts. Bassitt showed command over all of his six-pitch mix and had his fastball regularly sitting between 92-93.

New York’s new-look lineup has been dominant through the first 279 plate appearances of this season, with a third-best 133 wRC+ and a .344 wOBA.

Diamondbacks-Mets Pick

Bassitt should be a reliable starter all year long for the Mets, and this figures to be a solid spot for him to follow up an excellent opening contest vs. the Nats to begin his season. Even if he doesn’t manage a quality start, it’s possible we see a comfortable Mets win.

The Mets’ red-hot lineup matches up well against Davies, and I don’t think we need to look away from the obvious narrative that New York should keep the bats hot here.

At +110 I see an edge backing the Mets -1.5 and would play that down to -102.

Pick: New York Mets -1.5 +110 (Play to -102)

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