Diamondbacks vs. Rockies MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Pitching Advantage Key For Arizona (Friday, August 12)

Diamondbacks vs. Rockies MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Pitching Advantage Key For Arizona (Friday, August 12) article feature image

Norm Hall/Getty. Pictured: Zach Davies.

  • The Diamondbacks and Rockies square off in an NL West clash.
  • Kenny Ducey previews the pick 'em game.
  • Read on for his best bet and analysis of the contest.

Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Odds

Diamondbacks Odds+106
Rockies Odds-124
Over/Under12 (-118 / -104)
Time8:40 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Both the Diamondbacks and Rockies enter their weekend series with a head of steam.

Arizona has won four-of-five and Colorado has won four-of-seven. With that said, the Snakes may have an advantage in the pitching department as the two sides start a three game set.

Let's get into this one.

Arizona Diamondbacks in Good Pitching Situation

Zach Davies will be the man for the job on Friday, and a season after he defied his own peripherals for months on end, pitching around an alarmingly high hard-hit rate, the sinker-baller has made drastic improvements in 2022.

Davies is down 11.9% in that area to 31.4%, a number which is not only much better but actually among the top 10% in all of baseball.

He's been able to induce ground balls around the same high rate (42.8%) and his numbers across the board are all relatively calm. While his xERA of 4.12 isn't all that glamorous, his xwOBA on contact is much better than league average at .348, and his walk rate has come back down to above-average territory.

Davies hasn't allowed a run against Colorado in 11 1/3 innings this season — in fact, he's allowed just seven hits and four walks — though he's yet to pitch at Coors Field. With that said, as a ground-ball pitcher he's not exactly the worst guy to believe in at altitude.

As for the bats, the Diamondbacks are up at a 108 wRC+ in the last week with an extremely low 10.3% strikeout rate. Power has been hard to come by, however, and their fly ball rate is the third-lowest in the league during that time.

Colorado Rockies Looking to Crack Numbers

If you know Antonio Senzatela well (and if you do, I'd suggest seeking help), you would know that the right-hander has always been a better pitcher when at home versus when he's on the road.

Despite adverse pitching conditions, the righty owns a 4.57 ERA at Coors Field for his career and a 5.12 ERA away from Colorado. This season in the split he's been 4.02 at home and 5.50 on the road.

None of those numbers are particularly good, and Senzatela has surrendered five runs in nine innings against Arizona this season. The good news is that his last outing took him across seven frames, where he was able to pitch around nine hits and yield just two runs.

Perhaps playing right into Davies' hands, the Rockies have the third-highest ground ball rate in the majors this season at 45.8% and a meek hard-hit rate of 34.2% in the last week, which is 22nd in the major leagues during that time.

With that being said, Colorado has managed to check in at fifth in wRC+ in the last seven days thanks to a couple of big nights at the plate at home against St. Louis.

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Diamondbacks-Rockies Pick

This seems like a picture-perfect matchup for Davies. While he's suffered some tough nights at Coors Field in his career like any other pitcher, he theoretically shouldn't have much of an issue here.

The Rockies hit a ton of ground balls and aren't making a lot of hard contact, and Davies has been brilliant at getting ground balls and soft contact all year long.

On top of that, Arizona grades out as an above-average team against fastballs with 0.09 weighted runs per 100 pitches, and that should put it in an excellent spot against the fastball-happy Senzatela. That, and the fact that the offense has been getting a bat on everything.

I'd favor the Diamondbacks here and bet them to -115.

Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+105)

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