Dodgers vs. Braves MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Expect Fried, Atlanta to Bounce Back (Saturday, June 25)
Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: Max Fried (Braves)
- The Braves are home favorites on Saturday night against the Dodgers.
- The Braves have a pitching advantage with Max Fried on the mound, but is there any value left to back them?
- Charlie DiSturco breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.
Dodgers vs. Braves Odds
|Time||7:15 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Los Angeles Dodgers opened up their three-game series with the Atlanta Braves in dominant fashion as Julio Urias led the way to a 4-1 win on Friday night.
The red-hot Braves cooled off in the series opener but look to bounce back Saturday night behind ace Max Fried. He’ll be matched up with spot starter Mitch White, who replaces an injured Andrew Heaney.
Can the Dodgers keep rolling at Truist Park, or will Fried and Atlanta even up the series at one apiece?
Will White Step Up for the Dodgers?
With Heaney being placed on the injured list with left shoulder inflammation, the Dodgers will turn to White on Saturday night.
White makes his first appearance in over two weeks, when he threw five shutout innings against the White Sox. He was optioned back to Triple-A after Craig Kimbrel returned from paternity leave.
What you see is what you get when it comes to White. His expected indicators all hover around his 3.86 ERA, and he’s right around league-average when it comes to Barrel Rate, Whiff Rate and xBA.
The 27-year-old relies on his fastball that sits around the mid 90s, but he has been quite fortunate with the heater. Though it’s generated a .227 BA, White’s fastball has overperformed significantly (.334 xBA).
White won’t pitch deep into the game — his max is likely around the five-inning mark — as he looks to keep the ball rolling against Atlanta. In his last outing against the Braves, he threw two innings of one-run ball.
While the Dodgers offense is dominant against right-handed pitching, they do have their struggles against southpaws. They rank 13th in wRC+, 12th in isolated power and 11th in wOBA versus lefties, compared to a top-five mark in the same categories against right-handed pitching.
Can Max Fried and the Braves Bounce Back?
For the third straight season, Fried has dominated atop the Atlanta Braves rotation.
The southpaw is above average by nearly every advanced metric, and his expected indicators all sit around his actual ERA, signifying he’s pitching as advertised.
The biggest difference from last season is Fried has cut down his Walk Rate. In 2021, he ranked in the 40th percentile in Chase Rate and had a 6.1 Walk Rate.
But this season? He’s jumped to the 95th percentile in Chase Rate and his Walk Rate has dropped to a dominant 4.3 percent. He’s being barreled less often, too.
Fried’s velocity has seen an uptick in 2022 as well. His slider has jumped 2.5 miles per hour and is breaking a lot less horizontally than the year prior. It’s become his best pitch (.186 BA), along with his sinker (.189).
The Braves offense, meanwhile, ranks second in isolated power against right-handed pitching. They are red-hot at the plate in June, hitting .273 as a team with a .515 slugging percentage.
This is a very interesting matchup, and it’s a shame that Heaney was scratched due to injury.
I loved Atlanta bouncing back against Heaney, but Mitch White serving as the replacement has led to a drastic bump in price.
While White has been dominant in Triple-A since his demotion — 11 2/3 innings, three hits, no runs — I still expect him to have a relatively short leash on Saturday night.
The Dodgers bullpen is among the top 10 in ERA and rarely is beaten via the long ball. The same can be said for Atlanta’s relief corps, as both team’s top arms are very reliable.
Because of this, I think the way to attack this game is backing Fried over the first half of the game. I think there’s a significant edge on the mound, and Atlanta’s offense should fare much better against White than LA versus Fried.
Back the Braves to bounce back behind Fried en route to a first half win. If you don’t like the juice, parlay it with another heavier favorite, like Corbin Burnes and Milwaukee against Yusei Kikuchi and Toronto.
Pick: Braves F5 ML (play to -160)