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MLB Odds & Picks for Dodgers vs. Brewers: First Five Bet to Make in This Intriguing Matchup

MLB Odds & Picks for Dodgers vs. Brewers: First Five Bet to Make in This Intriguing Matchup article feature image
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Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Cody Bellinger.

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers travel to Wisconsin on Monday to take on the Milwaukee Brewers.
  • Despite getting their winning streak snapped by the Royals on Sunday, the Dodgers have been on a massive roll of late.
  • Kenny Ducey thinks they can take a lead early on Monday and explains his best bet below.

Dodgers vs. Brewers Odds

Dodgers Odds -165
Brewers Odds +140
Over/Under 7.5 (-110 / -110)
Time 8:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We’re in for a real treat this Monday as two of the most talented young pitchers in the National League toe the slab in Milwaukee.

Does Julio Urias truly have this big of an edge over Freddy Peralta? Is the total too high? These are questions we will answer below after a brief look over the numbers.


Los Angeles on a Roll Despite Recent Loss

Life is good in Los Angeles.

Sure, the Dodgers just had a 12-game winning streak snapped at the hands of the lowly Kansas City Royals, but they’re playing some incredible ball at the moment. Their isolated power is an impossible .236 in the last two weeks to lead all teams in the league, and while they’ve been walking at a lower rate than they’re expected, it hasn’t had any impact on scoring output.

Justin Turner has returned from injury, Cody Bellinger has caught fire and Joey Gallo seems to have remembered how to hit home runs again.

If there’s one thing the Dodgers have definitely done well over the last two weeks, it’s hit fastballs. They’re putting up 1.9 weighted runs per 100 fastballs during that time to lead the league, and that’s to the surprise of absolutely no one considering L.A. has the best mark against fastballs for the season with 0.73 runs per 100 pitches.

That MLB-best mark for the year pales in comparison to the mark this team owns in the last two weeks, which gives you an idea of just how much damage this team is doing.

Speaking of damage, there’s not much being done by opposing offenses when Julio Urias is on the hill. He owns a 2.50 ERA on the year with a really solid 2.79 xERA, once again ranking inside the top 10% of the league in hard-hit rate. His strikeout numbers remain great, too, coming in 2.2% above league average.

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Tough to Back Brewers Offense

It’s pretty hard to find a good reason to believe in the Brewers offense in this one.

Regardless of how good Urias has been, Milwaukee ranks 20th in wRC+ over the last two weeks with a bad 23.2% strikeout rate and a meek .171 ISO. Against lefties, the Brewers rank 25th in wRC+ with an even-worse 25% strikeout rate and a terrible .133 ISO.

It’s not as if the Brewers are missing too many big bats; Omar Narvaez and Jace Peterson are missing, but the story really has to be about the disappointing stretch that Luis Urias, Willy Adames and Christian Yelich are in.

None of the three own a wRC+ above 89 in the last two weeks, and it seems unlikely that Rowdy Tellez can continue single-handedly powering the offense.

The jury is still very much out on Peralta. I mean that in the context of this season and the young righty’s career in general. He was fantastic last season, but the sample was relatively small given the Brewers’ hesitance to let him go deep into games.

He’s been OK since coming back from injury with a 4.15 ERA in two starts, spanning 8 2/3 innings, but the strikeout numbers haven’t been fantastic with just seven punchouts over that span. His 3.17 xERA on the year should inspire some confidence, though.

Dodgers-Brewers Pick

Whether or not you believe that Peralta is a good pitcher — and I definitely do — it’s undeniable that the Dodgers have the edge in this game given Milwaukee’s dreadful stretch at the plate and its bad numbers against lefties.

On top of that, Peralta is a pitcher who heavily relies upon his fastball, throwing it more than 55% of the time. L.A. crushes that pitch.

While my gut says Peralta settles in here and pitches well, the numbers are pretty damning. I’m going to have to recommend a play on the Dodgers to lead after five.

Pick: Dodgers First Five -0.5 (-115)

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