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Dodgers vs. Cardinals MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Gonsolin Against St. Louis (Wednesday, July 13)

Dodgers vs. Cardinals MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Gonsolin Against St. Louis (Wednesday, July 13) article feature image
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Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Tony Gonsolin.

  • The St. Louis Cardinals host the Los Angeles Dodgers in Wednesday night National League action.
  • This will be a star-studded matchup with Tony Gonsolin and Adam Wainwright taking the mound, with Justin Turner, Nolan Arenado, Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt playing in the field.
  • Check out Kenny Ducey's best bet for Cardinals vs. Dodgers below.

Dodgers vs. Cardinals Odds

Dodgers Odds -155
Cardinals Odds +130
Over/Under 8 (-120 / +100)
Time 7:45 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Dodgers had a seven-game winning streak come to an end in St. Louis on Tuesday night, and they’ll aim to start a new run Wednesday with one of their best pitchers on the hill.

Tony Gonsolin has been a winning machine with a league-best 11 victories. He will oppose the ever-dangerous Adam Wainwright.

How will this one go? Let’s examine the matchup.


Unexpected Contributors Coming Through for Dodgers

There’s absolutely nothing wrong with how the Dodgers are hitting right now. They have Mookie Betts back in the lineup and they’re absolutely on fire, ranking third in wRC+ over the last two weeks with an elite 10.1% walk rate and a very high .222 ISO.

Despite the fact that players like Max Muncy and Cody Bellinger continue to slump, Justin Turner and Freddie Freeman continue to drive the ship with some surprising contributions from Gavin Lux, Trayce Thompson and Jake Lamb.

It’s also worth noting that despite of Bellinger and Muncy striking out in nearly a third of their plate appearances, the Dodgers have cut their strikeout rate — a big problem for them a few weeks ago — back to league average.

On the hill here is Gonsolin, who’s been lights out in 2022. He owns a special 1.62 ERA across 88 2/3 innings with an above-average strikeout rate at 24% and excellent batted-ball numbers like a 32.2% hard-hit rate and .336 xwOBA on contact.


Can Cardinals Hit Gonsolin?

St. Louis hasn’t been quite as composed at the plate over the last two weeks. It’s merely average with a 7.8% walk rate and 21.9% strikeout rate and very much below average in run production (89 wRC+) and isolated power (.138).

Runs have definitely been hard to come by all month, but 13 runs across the last two games is definitely an encouraging sight for the Cardinals as they continue to fight for NL Central supremacy.

In those two games, the Cardinals hit .319 with a very high .246 ISO and a low 19.4% strikeout rate. It’s an incredibly small sample, but it could be the start of something.

A potential hangup in this one for St. Louis could be Wainwright, who has been excellent yet again with a 3.15 ERA but who also owns some troubling underlying numbers. The grizzled sinker-baller hasn’t quite pitched to contact like he has in the past, owning a 4.43 xERA and a .404 xwOBA on contact.

These are significantly higher than where Wainwright was last season, and it seems to point to some regression on the horizon.

Dodgers-Cardinals Pick

The Dodgers rank fifth in barrel rate and fourth in hard-hit rate over the past two weeks, which is a pretty nightmarish sight for any contact-oriented pitcher, never mind one who has been slightly fleeting.

I don’t love this spot for Wainwright, and conversely, I love the thought of Gonsolin gunning against a team experiencing a serious power outage.

While the last couple of games have been great to the Cardinals, this is going to be a significantly tougher pitcher to get to. I’ll lay the juice here with the Dodgers.

Pick: Dodgers ML -150

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