Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Odds & Betting Picks: Are You Brave Enough to Fade L.A. on Monday?
Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Ketel Marte (4) of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- The Dodgers are red-hot to open the season and are winners in all five series to open the 2022 campaign.
- However, as our MLB betting analyst details below, there may be cause to fade Los Angeles with Walker Buehler on the mound tonight against the Diamondbacks.
- Do you dare to fade L.A.? Check out our MLB betting preview, which includes updated odds, picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks on Monday, April 25 at 9:40 p.m. ET.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Odds
|Over/Under||9 (+100 / -122)|
|Time||9:40 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Dodgers have had close to a perfect season so far and come into this three-game set with the Diamondbacks as winners of their first five series. With a struggling Walker Buehler on the bump, though, could Los Angeles run into a little bit of adversity against the Diamondbacks?
Let’s dig into this one.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Normal service has resumed for the Dodgers, who were briefly quieted by Yu Darvish and the Padres bullpen in a 3-2 loss on Saturday. LA roared back with a 10-2 win on Sunday to win its fifth consecutive series to open the season.
It seems there is nothing that will stop this team, and you’d certainly believe Arizona doesn’t have the goods to be the team to stop LA’s insane run.
The Dodgers have put together a league-best +44 run differential and scored an average of 5.47 per game — far and away the best mark in the big leagues. LA’s starters have posted a league-low 2.35 ERA in the early going, and the bullpen is the third-best in baseball with a 2.07 ERA.
There are simply no flaws with this team.
Walker Buehler will get the ball on Monday, and somehow he has been one of the worst Dodgers to this point. After going 16-4 with a sparkling 2.47 ERA last year, he has allowed seven earned runs in three starts, spanning 15 2/3 innings.
Buehler’s biggest issue is his underwhelming strikeout rate (16.2%). He must get the punch-outs back up in order to mitigate blows from the two homers he’s allowed in three starts and return to dominant form.
Merrill Kelly might be sort of good. I say “sort of,” because while a guy with a 4.19 ERA can’t really be considered a great pitcher, he generally gives Arizona a chance to win every time he pitches and is rarely the reason it loses. This is a valuable trade in today’s league, and after establishing himself as a trustworthy arm last year, Kelly has been even better in 2022.
Kelly has faced some decent offenses in the Padres, Astros and Nationals and come out on the other end looking like a star. He has allowed just one run on 13 hits and five walks while striking out 18 batters in 15 1/3 innings.
It’s a great juxtaposition to Buehler, who has pitched nearly the same amount of time and struggled in the ways you’d expect Kelly to struggle. On the other hand, these numbers from the historically-inferior righty likely resemble the line you would expect Buehler to put together to start his season.
The Diamondbacks are starting to figure some things out on the offensive end as well. They’ve now won three out of five games and have scored 27 runs in the process. Arizona ranks 11th in contact rate at 76.5% and 16th in hard-hit rate at 38.2%, which are hardly bad numbers. Perhaps there’s something here.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Pick
It’s downright impossible to fade the Dodgers these days, but this matchup is ever so intriguing to me.
Buehler has really struggled since the second half of last season. The bullpen behind him may be good, but that doesn’t mean Los Angeles will get off to a dream start here.
I’m going to back Kelly and the Diamondbacks to get out in front early.
Pick: Diamondbacks First Five (+152)