MLB Odds, Preview, Prediction for: Can San Francisco Protect NL West Lead? (July 27)

MLB Odds, Preview, Prediction for: Can San Francisco Protect NL West Lead? (July 27) article feature image
Credit:

Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Logan Webb.

  • The Dodgers and Giants start an important three-game series in San Francisco on Tuesday night.
  • San Fran opens the set two games against of Los Angeles in the National League West.
  • Mike Vitanza breaks down the matchup and which side he sees value in below.

Dodgers vs. Giants Odds

Dodgers Odds -135
Giants Odds +115
Over/Under 8
Time Tuesday, 9:45 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds as of Monday and via DraftKings

The Los Angeles Dodgers will head to Oracle Park on Tuesday night for the first game of a three-game series against the division-rival San Francisco Giants.

The Dodgers (61-40) enter just two games behind the Giants (62-37) in the National League West, making this a crucial series in the standings and one with potential playoff implications down the line. In fact, these two teams met just last week, in a series that saw the Giants take two of three at Dodger Stadium.

With Julio Urías on the mound, can the Dodgers take the first game on the road and narrow their deficit in the division to just a single game?

Urías Faces Very Familiar Foe

Urías is coming off an impressive start during which he allowed just one earned run over seven innings against San Francisco. In a game the Dodgers ultimately lost 4-2, Urías came away with the no-decision.

Overall, Urías has found a good deal of success on the mound in 2021. Over 119 innings, he’s compiled a 12-3 record to go along with a 3.63 FIP and strong 9.7 K/9 average. While his home run rate is up a bit from a year ago, his 1.28 HR/9 rate this season indicates he has still been adequate in limiting the long ball.

Tonight will not be the first time that the Giants have seen Urías in two consecutive starts this season. On May 23, Urías allowed two earned runs over six innings while striking out 10 in a victory against San Francisco. Just five days later, they tagged him for 11 hits and six earned runs in just five innings. Two months later, the Giants are presented with the same scenario against the southpaw.

Even despite the familiarity, it’s worth noting that the Giants have also found success against left-handed pitching as a whole this season. As a team, they’ve hit to a .320 wOBA thus far against lefties.

Webb Looks to Continue Strong 2021

Logan Webb will take the hill for the Giants on Tuesday night in what will amount to his 13 start of the season. He’s made substantial improvement this year and is on track for the best season of his young MLB career.

Over 61 innings, Webb has a 3.32 FIP and struck batters out at an impressive 9.6 K/9 clip. He’s also been extremely successful at keeping the ball in the park, allowing just 0.74 HR/9 to opposing batters.

Additionally, with a respectable 34.1% Hard Hit rate (per Stat Cast) and a relatively low 6.0%-barrel rate allowed to opposing batters, there appears to be no indication in his advanced metrics that point towards any negative regression for Webb in the near future.

Webb has also been successful when matched up against the Dodgers this year. In two starts, he’s allowed just three earned runs while striking out 12 over 10 innings pitched.

That said, it’s still not an easy matchup. The Dodgers have been one of the best teams in baseball this season against right-handed pitching, collectively hitting to a .337 wOBA against them, the second-best mark in all of baseball.

When Webb exits, manager Gabe Kapler will have no hesitation turning the ball over to a bullpen that has been one of the best in baseball so far this season. Over 344 1/3 innings, the Giants bullpen has combined for a 3.88 FIP, good for sixth-best amongst all teams.

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Dodgers-Giants Pick

Playing at home against a familiar division foe, there is value on the Giants’ moneyline here. When comparing the two starting pitchers, Webb has been more consistent on the season and fared better against the Dodgers.

The Giants offense has also already proven capable of taking advantage of this very situation — when they saw Urías after just five days in May, they took advantage to the tune of six earned runs in just five innings pitched.

The bullpens on each side are both strong, more or less offsetting one another here, leaving us with the gap in starting pitching as the biggest difference.

At home, I’m taking the underdog at plus money here. I’d be comfortable playing this all the way down to even money.

Pick: Giants +120

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