The sixth World Baseball Classic begins on Wednesday, March 4, and will run through the championship game on Tuesday, March 17, at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida.
The goal for this article is to highlight top daily projection edges for World Baseball Classic moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
Below, I preview the WBC Quarterfinal matchups: Korea vs. Dominican Republic, USA vs. Canada, Puerto Rico vs. Italy, and Venezuela vs. Japan.
If you want my bets, make sure to follow me in the Action Network App, and if you want my projection for Sunday's semifinal, make sure to follow me on Twitter.
Here are my World Baseball Classic Predictions and WBC picks for Friday, March 13.
World Baseball Classic Predictions for March 13
Korea vs. Dominican Republic Picks
While Team USA and Japan both have deep lineups, none can overcome the quality of the top four bats in the Dominican batting order, with the Fernando Taris Jr. (131 wRC+), Ketel Marte (136), Juan Soto (161), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (144) quartet anchoring an order that features eight above-average hitters, and six bats more than 20% better than major league average.
Korea's batting order has several MLB-calibre bats and young, dynamic talents, including Do Yeong Kim and Hyun Min Ahn, but as a group, they would still rate as a slightly below-average MLB offense (near a 97 wRC+), whereas the Dominican order projects in the range of my typical All-Star game starting lineups (130 wRC+)
But the pitching is the more significant separator, as the DR will start reigning NL Cy Young runner-up Cristopher Sanchez (3.02 xFIP, 20.8% K-BB%) against 2019 runner-up Hyun Jin Ryu.
The 38-year-old southpaw posted a 3.37 xFIP and a 16.9% K-BB% last season in the KBO, following an excellent 10-year MLB stint (78-48, 3.27 ERA, 3.57 xFIP, 16.1% K-BB%). Still, Ryu would project as a below-average MLB starter at present, and I don't think Korea's pitching has the caliber of stuff to get outs against MLB hitters.
Not only do the Dominican hitters have the highest average exit velocity in the tournament (by a lot), their pitchers also lead the way in four-seam velocity (96.5 mph; USA second at 95.0 mph; Venezuela 94.7, Mexico 94.7, Japan 93.9)
At the same time, Korea ranks 17th at 91.3 mph — a full five ticks below the DR pitchers. The bottom rung of that fastball table (Czechia 86 mph, Australia 89.7 mph, Nicaragua 90.8, Brazil 91.4, Panama 91.8, Great Britain 92.1) is mostly teams that will need to re-qualify for 2029, while the top end listed above was considered the primary tournament contenders.
Every arm in the DR bullpen has an MLB pedigree and projects for a sub-3.8 FIP and could generate an inordinate number of whiffs against Korea's contact-oriented lineup, but unless the breaking stuff for Korea's pitchers is particularly sharp on Friday, I'd expect the DR lineup to tee off against their staff.
I set the Dominican Republic north of 90% in this matchup, and I show slight moneyline value at some books (listed at -800 at Caesars) and spread value at others (-4.5, -105 at DraftKings). The former is a juicy parlay piece; the latter I'd bet to -115.
I also lean to the Under in this game, but given the explosiveness of the DR offense, I would need -115 on Under 10.5, or I'd pivot to a Korea team total under instead. You can also try some SGP combinations, with Korea's Team Total Under, the DR -4.5 Runs, and the Game Total Under.
However, there's an alternative futures approach for betting on the Dominican Republic before this game:
Considering the quarterfinal price isn't that enticing for a moneyline rollover, I'd allocate more futures capital at this stage to the team I expect to win it all, and/or look to bet a rollover in the semi-final, and hopefully final.
Based on my updated futures projection, I'd take the DR down to +240 before their likely semifinal matchup with Team USA. I gave out +460 before the tournament, but there's a bettable edge to around +230 based upon my updated model projection.
I'll touch on Venezuela's path, and why you should bet them game by game instead, below.
Pick: Dominican Republic -4.5 (bet to -115) | Korea Team Total Under 2.5 (bet to -130) | WBC Winner: Dominican Republic +260 (bet to +230)
USA vs. Canada Picks
Canada's reward for winning Pool A and advancing to the quarterfinal round for the first time in WBC history? A head-to-head matchup with the tournament favorite and their arch rivals, in America's national pastime, after the United States took a pair of gold medals off of Canada in their homegrown sport at the Olympics.
I expect the Americans to find a way to keep Gunnar Henderson and Pete Crow-Armstrong in Friday's lineup, but it's Team USA's pitching advantage that should carry them through to the semifinal.
The Americans swapped out several of their weaker starting pitchers (Matt Boyd, Clay Holmes, Clayton Kershaw, and Michael Wacha) in exchange for far more effective relief pitchers (Will Vest, Tyler Rogers, and Tim Hill) who, when used in conjunction, can help form a hydra of arm angles out of the bullpen to give opposing hitters different looks.
The moves were a net positive for an already elite pitching staff, and I expect that manager Mark DeRosa will overcompensate for his off-the-field (and somewhat on the field) blunders by deploying his best pitchers aggressively, even if he should optimally try to save his best pitchers for the likely semifinal against the DR.
As a result, you can probably expect to see some combination of Mason Miller (projected 2.46 FIP) — the best reliever in the WBC — along with Gabe Speier (3.18), Griffin Jax (2.79), and Vest (3.12) behind Logan Webb (3.05), even if Team USA has a decent lead.
Canada has a relatively effective lineup, but figuring out the pitching after Michael Soroka (4.05) should be a puzzle for Ernie Whitt. I suspect he might try to piggyback Soroka with another starter (potentially Jameson Taillon, if the Cubs allow it), otherwise he may be forced to go to Brock Dykxhoorn — who plays in the Taiwanese league — and the retired but resurgent Big Maple, James Paxton, for multi-inning stints yet again.
The defensive gap between these teams is also substantial. Denzel Clarke may be the best defender in the tournament, but beyond him, these are my best and worst defensive teams remaining, adding about a 3% net swing in favor of the Americans' win probability.
Canada made us a bunch of money with futures, but they were the best team in what was, by far, the tournament's weakest Pool.
I do align with the moneyline and spread for this game, but I show value on the Under. Canada has relied on walks to generate runs — Logan Webb and Team USA will pound the zone and force them to hit past the best defensive team in the tournament.
I would consider betting Under 9.5 to -105, or I would look at a Canadian team total Under against an elite American pitching staff.
Pick: Canada Team Total Under 2.5 (bet to -125) or Under 9.5 (small to -105)
World Baseball Classic Predictions for March 14
Puerto Rico vs. Italy Picks
Italy's offense took a hit when Kyle Teel, one of their three hitters projected as an above-average bat, went down with a hamstring strain. They called up Mickey Gasper from the Red Sox to replace him, but the Teel to Gasper downgrade probably costs them about 2-3% in win probability in any matchup.
Italy has held back its starting pitcher announcement, as Sam Aldegheri projects worse than any of their bullpen arms. I expect manager Francisco Cervelli to potentially pitch the game backward with an opener and deploy his relievers aggressively in a winner-take-all contest.
Still, Puerto Rico may have the weakest offense among the eight remaining contenders. Despite the presence of Nolan Arenado, they also project as a well below-average team both on defense and on the basepaths.
Italy's offense has substantially more power, but its bullpen is full of arms with FIP projections north of 4. Puerto Rico has the three best relief pitchers in the game, with Edwin Diaz (2.93 FIP), Fernando Cruz, and Jovani Moran (3.69) waiting to hold down a lead behind Seth Lugo.
If Italy can get Aldegheri — their lone Italian-born player — through three innings and have him leave either tied or with a lead, that'd be an ideal scenario for their chances. It may be difficult to score runs in the late innings, as Yadier Molina prefers to hold back his higher-leverage arms for traditional innings and roles.
Italy opened as a +112 underdog, and I was happy to bet them once again at plus money. They were among the teams I was highest on, while Puerto Rico was one of the teams I was lowest on, relative to futures odds, and our futures positions and game-by-game wagering have consistently reflected the same opinion.
And to reiterate my prior analysis, when it comes to tournament-style elimination games with fresh pitchers every inning, I'd much rather have a team more likely to win the home run battle, which has a near-80% correlation with winning MLB playoff games.
Lastly, the total for this game opened at 8.5, and I would take the Under at plus money (or Under 9 to -120) if there is early buying toward the Over.
Pick: Italy +112 (bet to -115)
Venezuela vs. Japan Picks
Japan has the better starting pitcher, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto ranking a tier above Ranger Suarez.
Still, the lineups are extremely comparable, as the presence of Venezuela's star, Ronald Acuna Jr., somewhat offsets the expected contributions of a DH-only Shohei Ohtani.
And I would argue that the depth of the Venezuelan lineup is better than the back half of Japan's lineup. I also rate Venezuela as the superior defensive team, particularly if they insert Andres Gimenez at shortstop (or second base) instead of Ezequiel Tovar or Luis Arraez (a woeful defender).
I've been waiting for Japan's defensive outfield alignment to catch up with them.
Seiya Suzuki, who recorded -5 Defensive Runs Saved in the corner outfield last season, is playing center field between Mastaka Yoshida, who has played less than 100 games in the outfield since the last WBC (-4 DRS in Boston), and Kensuke Kondoh, who is also better served as a DH. Additionally, they have Munetaka Murakami at first base, since Shohei Ohtani is blocking their actual DH spot.
Japan has quality NPB arms behind Yamamoto — most of whom project for a sub-four FIP at the MLB level — but I prefer the proven high-end relievers in Venezuela's bullpen, including Danny Palencia (3.68 FIP), Eduard Bazardo (3.80), and Angel Zerpa (3.75). Andrés Machado (3.96), who last pitched stateside in 2023 but posted a 1.95 xFIP and a 22.3% K-BB% for Orix in NPB last season, should be a bit more familiar to the Japanese hitters.
At worst, the high-leverage relief pitching, in the context of one game, should be a relative coinflip. Yamamoto is Japan's only clear advantage over Venezuela, and he is limited to 80 pitches for the quarterfinal.
The market has Japan near 60% in this game, but I have this matchup much closer to even, and that's based purely on talent.
You can make the case that Venezuela, along with the Dominican Republic, Italy, and the United States, should get some credit for ballpark familiarity and limited travel, relative to their quarterfinal opponents.
I expect the winner of this game to reach the final from the right side of the bracket, and for the eventual DR-USA winner to reach the final from the left side, setting up a potential DR-Venezuela Pool D rematch in the final (or a Japan-USA rematch from 2023).
I wouldn't bet Venezuela's championship futures, since most of that edge is baked into my probability of them beating Japan in this specific head-to-head matchup. I may not show value on them for any game the rest of the way, as their starting pitcher quality drops off dramatically behind Suarez.
I would consider betting over 7.5 at plus money, but the market is flat at that number. Even if it moves into range, I strongly prefer Venezuela's moneyline as the value bet in this game.
Pick: Venezuela +145 (bet to +115)
Zerillo's WBC Quarterfinals Predictions & Picks
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- Dominican Republic -4.5 Runs (-110, 0.3u), DraftKings; bet to -115
- Italy (+112, 1u), FanDuel; bet to -115
- Korea Team Total Under 2.5 (+114, 0.3u), DraftKings; bet to -130
- SGP (+280, 0.1u), Fanatics: Dominican Republic -4.5 & Under 11.5 Runs
- Venezuela (+145 1u), DraftKings; bet to +115
- WBC Winner: Dominican Republic (+260, 0.5u), Fanatics; bet to +230
