Canada will play the USA in the World Baseball Classic quarterfinals on Friday, March 13, at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas.
The game will start at 8 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on FOX.
The USA is a -950 moneyline favorite and priced at -125 to cover 4.5 runs. The total is set at 9.5 runs.
Here's my Canada vs USA WBC prediction and World Baseball Classic picks for March 13, 2026.
Canada vs USA WBC Prediction
- My Pick: Both Teams to Score 3 Runs +125 (bet365, Play to +115)
My Canada vs USA best bet is on both teams to score three or more runs, with the best odds currently available at bet365.
Canada vs USA Odds
| United States Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -125 | 9.5 -120o / -105u | -900 |
| Canada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 +100 | 9.5 -120o / -105u | +550 |
- Canada vs USA Moneyline: +550 / -900
- Canada vs USA Run Line (+4.5/-4.5): -125/+105
- Canada vs USA Total: 9.5 (-120o / -105u)
Canada vs USA WBC Preview
Canada Betting Preview
Canada managed to escape the group stage for the first time in its five trips to the WBC, and did so in convincing fashion by winning Pool A with a record of 3-1. Unfortunately, winning the group was ultimately not beneficial. Thanks to USA's surprising second-place finish in its group, Canada is now in store for a David vs Goliath matchup in the quarterfinals.
Given how soft Group A appeared to be, there was a pretty strong argument that Canada's lineup appeared to be undervalued by oddsmakers entering the tournament. Action Network's Sean Zerillo projects the unit at a wRC+ of 91 at the MLB level, and with a 45.74% ROI across 59 picks on the tournament, his projections appear to be quite accurate.
Through its first four games, Canada holds a batting average of .244, an OBP of .350, and an OPS of .713. They have averaged 5.25 runs scored per game. They have not faced a ton of high-quality pitching, but they have done an excellent job of grinding through the higher-quality arms they have faced with a highly disciplined approach at the plate.
Canada did well to chase 2025 NPB MVP Livan Moinelo from the mound early in its previous matchup against Cuba, and has seen at least five pitches in 29% of their plate appearances in the tournament. It will likely stick with that approach Friday versus Logan Webb, though getting Webb out of the game early will not provide as much of a benefit considering the strength of USA's bullpen.
While Canada's offense benefitted from facing some soft arms playing out of Group A, the group was even weaker in terms of average lineup quality. Canada's staff holds a 1.50 ERA, and allowed a batting average of just .211 in pool play but obviously has not faced a lineup remotely close to what the U.S. is offering.
Michael Soroka will take the mound for Canada after allowing one earned run and four hits across three innings of work in the tournament opener versus Colombia. Though Soroka is no longer of the quality he was early in his career, he fared well at the MLB level last season, pitching to a 3.53 xERA and 4.21 xFIP across 89 2/3 innings of work. He held a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 17.4% and is projected to hold an ERA just north of four this season.
USA Betting Preview
The U.S. escaped a scare in the group stage; after suffering an 8-6 loss to Italy, it no longer controlled its own destiny entering the final day of play. While it needed some luck to get to this point, every other remaining team in the tournament was undoubtedly cheering heavily for Mexico to win a relatively low-scoring game Wednesday, given that on paper the USA has the best roster in the tournament.
The USA averaged 8.75 runs per game, slugged .514, and held an OPS of .944 throughout the group stage. None of those statistics are remotely surprising for a lineup compiled entirely of All-Star caliber MLB players, led by one of the greatest hitters in his generation in Aaron Judge.
Though some of their runs allowed came in garbage time versus Brazil and Mexico, the pitching staff has been less dominant than expected to this point, pitching to an ERA of 3.50.
Logan Webb fared well in his previous start in the tournament opener, as he allowed just one hit and one earned run across four innings of work, though it was versus a Brazilian lineup that was among the very worst units in the tournament. Webb pitched to a 3.22 ERA across 207 innings of work with the San Francisco Giants last season, and held an xERA of 3.58. In addition, he held a Stuff+ rating of 105, and a Pitching+ of 111.
Canada vs USA World Baseball Classic Picks
The U.S. should roll through Canada fairly comfortably in this matchup, and things could certainly get ugly if Soroka is unable to offer at least 3 or 4 solid innings. Soroka had a quietly strong bounce back MLB season in 2025, and it wouldn't be stunning if he is able to have a respectable outing, but that's still a big ask. Plus, Canada's relief staff could struggle mightily in this matchup.
A run line of -4.5 seems to be fair, and I'm not sold on there being value at a price of -125 for USA to cover. It feels as though Canada has something special going in this tournament, but that may have a lot to do with its softer schedule.
Canada's offensive process has been fundamentally excellent, and it has fared well versus some quality arms in this tournament. Considering that it does have a strong base of MLB hitters, it's not all that surprising to see the unit come together as it has. Team USA's pitching staff offers a much greater challenge, but there still looks to be value in backing both teams to score three or more runs at a long price of +125.
Pick: Both Teams to Score 3 Runs +125 (Bet365, Play to +115)
