The sixth World Baseball Classic begins on Wednesday, March 4, and will run through the championship game on Tuesday, March 17, at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida.
The goal for this article is to highlight top daily projection edges for World Baseball Classic moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
Below, I preview the WBC Semifinal between Italy and Venezuela.
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Here's my WBC Semifinal Prediction and World Baseball Classic pick for Monday, March 16.
WBC Semifinal Prediction for March 16
Zerillo's Pick for Venezuela vs. Italy
If you have followed my tournament coverage, I have shown quantifiable value on Italy's moneyline and watched the market ultimately tick in their direction in every contest.
However, I am against the Italians in the semifinal and feel that their current line finally reflects recency bias.
In contrast, most opening lines for these tournament games have been calculable solely from pre-tournament futures odds (slightly adjusted for starting pitchers).
Venezuela initially was supposed to have the starting pitching edge, with the Tigers' Keider Montero (projected FIP range of 4.35 to 4.60 in 2026, projected K-BB% of 10.7% to 12.2%) facing the Rockies' Michael Lorenzen (projected FIP range of 4.85 to 5.47 in 2026, projected K-BB% range of 7.5% to 10.0%. Montero sits slightly closer to the MLB baseline (4.16 FIP, 13.8% K-BB% in 2025), but both righties are below-average pitchers.
Still, Italy made a late swap to Aaron Nola (projected FIP range 3.81 to 4.50; projected K-BB% range 15.2% to 18.2%), perhaps making the probable pitcher swap on Monday a matter of gamesmanship, after Venezuela made their initial preparations for Lorenzen.
Still, there is a large gap between these bullpens. The top five arms in Venezuela's bullpen are well below the MLB average FIP (projected 3.84), while Italy's are nearer to average (4.12), and their bullpen is a bit more tired heading into the semifinal.
Both teams used their bullpens heavily in the quarterfinal, but Danny Palencia, Eduard Bazardo, Andres Machado, Angel Zerpa, and Jose Buttó all threw under 15 pitches against Japan. Conversely, Greg Weissert (28 pitches) and Dan Altavilla (26) had heavier workloads for Italy against Puerto Rico, while Matt Festa gave up multiple runs in a rough outing.
I don't think Italy has the bullpen depth to cover a nine-inning game without giving up crooked numbers against a lineup this deep, unless Nola can pitch into the sixth inning.
Venezuela has the superior offense, projecting for a 108 wRC+ at the MLB level, compared to an 89 for Team Italy.
Apart from Ezequiel Tovar — who is still improving at age 24 — every bat in Venezuela's order (and several on their bench) grades as above-average hitters against right-handed pitching. Meanwhile, Italy only has one or two lefties, the best being Joe La Sorsa (4.54 FIP), who they can turn to in relief.
Conversely, apart from the middle of the Italian order, every bat projects below the MLB baseline, and they don't have better options to pinch hit with off the bench either. Venezuela's bench projects for a 99 wRC+, better than Italy's starting lineup. The Italian bench projects closer to an 80 wRC+.
Moreover, Venezuela has several effective southpaw relievers who can force Jacob Marsee, Vinnie Pasquantino, Dominic Canzone, and Jac Caglianone into their lesser split.
Venezuela is also the better fielding team, particularly when they bring Andres Gimenez off the bench as a defensive replacement. Italy projects slightly better on the basepaths, but the advantage is relatively negligible.
While I have been much higher on Italy than the opening odds have typically suggested, I have a much different opinion on this contest, setting Venezuela near -215, compared to opening odds nearer to -160 (61.5% implied). I would have set the game closer to -265 if Lorenzen was starting instead of Nola.
Still, I recommend betting Venezuela at -197, with that number representing an edge of at least 2% compared to my projected line.
Additionally, I project value in the total after the swap from Lorenzen to Nola; I would have set the total near 10.15 with Lorenzen, but make it closer to 9.5 with Nola; bet Under 10.5 to -125, or Under 10 to -110.
Pick: Venezuela ML (-197 or Better) | Under 10.5 (-125 or better, or 10 -110 or better)
Zerillo's WBC Predictions & Picks for Monday, March 16
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