Venezuela will play Japan in the World Baseball Classic quarterfinals on Saturday, March 14, at loanDepot Park in Miami, Florida.
The game will start at 9 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on FOX.
Japan is a -195 Moneyline favorite and a -1.5 (+110) run line favorite. The total is set at 7.5 (-110 / -110).
Here's my Venezuela vs Japan WBC prediction and World Baseball Classic picks for March 13, 2026.
Venezuela vs Japan WBC Prediction
- My Pick: Venezula ML (+160)
My Venezuela vs Japan best bet is on Venezuela to win outright.
Venezuela vs Japan Odds
| Venezuela Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 7.5 -110 / -110 | +160 |
| Japan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 7.5 -110 / -110 | -195 |
- Venezuela vs Japan Moneyline: Venezuela +160, Japan -195
- Venezuela vs Japan Run Line: Venezuela +1.5 (-135), Japan -1.5 (+110)
- Venezuela vs Japan Total: 7.5 (-110 / -110)
Venezuela vs Japan WBC Preview
Venezuela Betting Preview
The Venezuelans didn't come through the best pool in the tournament, but it was indeed a tricky one.
They finished 3-1, with just the one loss to the Dominican Republic. They only lost to the dominant Dominicans 7-5.
Venezuela's offense is mainly what got them here, ranking sixth in the field with an OPS of .809.
It boasts a top-of-the-order lineup featuring Ronald Acuna, Maikel Garcia, and William Contreras. The only strange part is manager Omar Lopez slotting Luis Arraez in third, sandwiched between those names.
Lopez has also opted not to use Gleyber Torres virtually at all, sitting him on the bench as Ezekiel Tovar mans short. He's also had Jackson Chourio hitting ninth — though to be fair, he's hitting just .167 this World Baseball Classic.
I certainly don't understand all of Lopez's decisions, but it's hard to argue with the results. His latest decision came three days ago when he named Ranger Suarez the starter for this game, an arm he hasn't used in eight days.
Suarez last pitched in the opener for Venezuela, earning the win over the Netherlands with two innings of one-run ball and allowing just a run on three hits in the process. He will certainly have a tougher test here against Japan, which has been pacing closely with Italy and the Dominican Republic at the plate.
It's certainly possible that Suarez, a lefty, can help against a Japanese team that owns several key left-handed bats like Shohei Ohtani and Masataka Yoshida.
It's also notable that Venezuela's staff has an acceptable 3.55 xFIP and a low 6.1% walk rate through the first round, but it's also allowed the second-highest barrel rate.
Japan Betting Preview
Japan has been loving life, playing in front of packed houses in Tokyo and winning quite easily every time it takes the field.
It's also fair to question how good any of these teams they've played are.
We know that Czechia and Chinese Taipei lack MLB bodies. While Australia and Korea kept matters close on the scoreboard, the Japanese simply never let their opponents into the game.
That's partially due to the competition level, but this Japanese team ranked second in the first round with a 1.99 xFIP and didn't rely on its biggest names. No Japanese pitcher has thrown more than 4 2/3 innings, speaking to this team's depth. Frankly, the numbers for this team are kind of unbelievable considering they survived the terrible Yusei Kikuchi, who was hit hard by Korea.
The man on the bump for this one will be Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who worked 2 2/3 innings for Japan in the win over Chinese Taipei.
He allowed three walks and struck out two, which looks pretty bad in retrospect, considering Chinese Taipei finished with one hit and five walks in seven innings. He also struggled a bit through his first two starts in spring training, allowing four runs (three earned) on eight hits over 4 2/3 innings. He did work a 7-to-0 strikeout-to-walk rate in the outings, but I think you can create a pretty strong argument that Yamamoto is still shaking off the rust.
The offense speaks for itself, but we can note that it's ranked third with a .424 xwOBA, running an 18.5% walk rate (second only to the Dominican Republic), and a solid 45.8% hard-hit rate.
There are plenty of talented bats in the order, a couple of which will be debuting in the bigs this year, but it should be noted that Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto have gone a combined 5-for-30 this classic. The heavy lifting has been done by Ohtani, Yoshida, and Seiya Suzuki.
Venezuela vs Japan World Baseball Classic Picks
Japan has cumulatively put up some great numbers this tournament, but the lack of quality pitching in its pool makes me question how it will look when the level is raised by Venezuela.
Suarez hasn't been on fire between spring training and the WBC, but he will make life the slightest bit trickier on two of Japan's best three hitters, who are left-handed, and his bullpen has produced solid numbers with few walks.
That will challenge the depth of this lineup, and I think that's concerning because we've mentioned the bulk of the at-bats are coming from guys who aren't producing yet.
Venezuela's lineup, top to bottom, may be better on paper than Japan's, and I think we may see that narrative shape on Saturday.
Yamamoto is still working his way back into form, judging by the three outings we've seen, and Venezuela's offense has seemed to rally around its manager, which has certainly been doing things his way.
I started off the tournament scolding Omar Lopez for his decisions, but now I think he may just have the magic touch. Get that bench some at-bats, and I think we could see an upset.
Pick: Venezuela ML (+160)
