The Dominican Republic will play the USA in the World Baseball Classic semifinals on Sunday, March 15, at loanDepot Park in Miami, Florida.
The game will start at 8 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on FS1.
The USA is a -140 Moneyline favorite and a -1.5 (+110) run line favorite. The total is set at 8.5 (-115 / -105).
Here's my Dominican Republic vs USA WBC prediction and World Baseball Classic picks for March 15, 2026.
Dominican Republic vs USA WBC Prediction
- My Pick: United States ML -140
My Dominican Republic vs USA best bet is on the United States to win outright.
Dominican Republic vs USA Odds
| United States Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -140 |
| Dominican Republic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +115 |
- Dominican Republic vs USA Moneyline: USA -140, Dominican Republic +115
- Dominican Republic vs USA Run Line: USA -1.5 (+110), Dominican Republic +1.5 (-140)
- Dominican Republic vs USA Total: 8.5 (-115o / -105u)
Dominican Republic vs USA WBC Preview
This might be the semifinals, but it has a championship game feel. The United States will send the best pitcher in baseball, Paul Skenes, on the mound to face the daunting Dominican Republic lineup.
The DR has steamrolled through the early stages of this tournament, winning two games via 10 run mercy rule and just only one game got sweaty, a 7-5 win over Venezuela. Meanwhile, the Americans had to scratch and claw to reach the semis, losing to Italy in pool play and sneaking out a tight win over Canada in the quarterfinals.
USA manager Mark DeRosa said Skenes will throw 75-80 pitches, which could be six or seven innings if all goes to plan. Skenes made his Team USA debut by shutting down Mexico for four innings with seven strikeouts and just two baserunners.
The reigning NL CY Young had his regular upper 90s fastball with sharp breaking stuff in his debut, so he’s in mid-season form.
Behind Skenes is a formidable bullpen that received some reinforcements in this round. The back-end is solidified with David Bednar and Mason Miller, while bringing in Will Vest and Tyler Rogers provides a stable bridge to the 8th and 9th inning arms.
I’m just waiting for this very proven United States lineup to play up to its ability. They rank fourth in the WBC with a .883 OPS and tied for sixth place with Korea and Australia with seven home runs.
The one perceived advantage the US had over everyone else in the WBC was at the catcher spot. However, Cal Raleigh has been terrible, failing to record a hit in the tournament. Perhaps DeRosa rolls with Will Smith in the semifinals. Two other struggling players are Bryce Harper and Alex Bregman, who each are at or below a .200 average.
Still, the Americans have some players hitting well. Gunner Henderson, Roman Anthony, Aaron Judge, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Bobby Witt Jr. have all made a positive impact on the US lineup. If the other three start to connect, this United States team becomes a real force.
The Dominican Republic used its ace, Cristopher Sanchez, in the quarterfinals round, which means Luis Severino is taking the ball in the semifinals. Severino still throws absolute gas, sitting in the 96-99 range in his start against the Kingdom of the Netherlands, where he pitched four innings and allowed one run.
I didn’t expect the bullpen to be a strength for the DR. The only reliever to give up a run so far is Abner Uribe. The pen has countless hard-throwing righties, and even a southpaw in Gregory Soto.
At the top of the lineup, the Dominican Republic has the best trio in the entire tournament. Vlad Guerrero Jr. is hitting .500, Juan Soto is hitting .333, and Fernando Tatis Jr. is hitting .462. However, the infield trio of Ketel Marte, Manny Machado and Geraldo Perdomo is each hitting .250 or worse.
The United States boasts a substantial advantage on the mound that should shift this game. The Americans have a better chance to shorten the game with Skenes on the mound, where the DR will hope for a strong five innings from Severino.
When a team is asking for 15+ outs from the bullpen, things can be difficult if one pitcher is off and shifts the trajectory of the game.
Both of those reasons are why I want to back the US at -140.
Pick: United States ML -140
