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Dodgers vs Mets MLB Odds, Pick, Preview & Prediction: How to Bet Clayton Kershaw’s Return in New York (Thursday, September 1)

Dodgers vs Mets MLB Odds, Pick, Preview & Prediction: How to Bet Clayton Kershaw’s Return in New York (Thursday, September 1) article feature image
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Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Clayton Kershaw

  • The Dodgers are slight road favorites this afternoon against the Mets.
  • Clayton Kershaw returns from injury for Los Angeles, while New York will counter with Chris Bassitt.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Dodgers vs. Mets Odds

Dodgers Odds -135
Mets Odds +115
Over/Under 8
Time 4:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets are the two favorites to win the NL pennant this season and that has been reflected in the season series thus far. The teams have split the first six meetings and today’s game will decide the season series.

The game will also mark the return of Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw. The Mets will counter Chris Bassitt. The first two games in the series have been low scoring with a combined 10 runs scored. Today’s total sits at 7.5, in anticipation of another low-scoring. However, the value may lie with the Mets instead.

What Can Dodgers Get Out of Returning Kershaw?

Kershaw will make first start since August 4th against the Giants. Kershaw is having another solid season as he is 7-3 with a 2.64 ERA. He ranks in the 80th percentile or above in average exit velocity, chase rate, xSLG, and hard hit percentage.

He also ranks in the the 91st percentile in barrel rate  and 94th percentile in walk percentage. However, Kershaw had not pitched more than 5 1/3 innings in his three previous starts prior to going to on the IL again. You can expect that the Dodgers will be careful with his pitch count.

Outfielder Mookie Betts has carried the Dodgers’ offense of late and few hitters in the league have been hotter than him. He even homered off Jacob deGrom Wednesday night. Over his last seven games, Betts is hitting .385 with five home runs, eight runs batted in and a 1.525 OPS.

He is joined at the top of the lineup by shortstop Trea Turner and first baseman Freddie Freeman, who have both been consistent all season.

Turner is hitting .317 over his last 15 games, which is right in line with his season average of .307 to go along with 18 home runs and 86 runs batted. Speaking of consistency, Freeman is hitting exactly .344 in his last seven games, last 15 games, and last 30 games. For the season, he is hitting .325 with 16 home runs, 81 runs batted in, and 11 stolen bases.

Third baseman Justin Turner is 3-for-6 against Bassitt and loves to remind the Mets that letting him go was a mistake.

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Mets’ Staff Has Held Up So Far

Taijuan Walker allowed three runs in 5 1/3 innings on Tuesday and deGrom held the Dodgers’ potent lineup to a run on three hits in seven innings Wednesday night. The Mets will turn to Bassitt to keep things rolling on the mound.

Bassitt is 11-7 on the year with a 3.34 ERA and 3.21 xERA. Bassitt is also tough on right-handed batters, limiting them to a .217 opposing batting, six home runs, and a 0.98 WHIP. He could slow down Betts, Trea and Justin Turner, and Will Smith at the top of the Dodgers’ lineup.

The Mets have hit .262 as a team since the All-Star break and .269 in the month of August. The Mets are carried offensively by their star duo of first baseman Pete Alonso and shortstop Francisco Lindor. Alonso is hitting .321 over his last seven games and has 31 home runs and 105 runs batted in on the year. Lindor has 21 home runs and 85 runs batted in, though he is hitting just .130 over his last seven games. However, the “others” have picked up the slack.

Outfielder Mark Canha is hitting .362 with four home runs and 13 runs batted in over his last 15 games. He is also 3-for-9 against Kershaw. Outfielder Starling Marte is hitting four home runs with 11 runs batted over his last 15 games. He also hits .301 against left-handed pitchers this season.

Third baseman Eduardo Escobar has two home runs in 20 career ABs against Kershaw. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo has had two hits in each of the first games in this series.

Dodgers-Mets Pick

While the Mets have a slugger in Alonso, overall they are not the type of team to win via the long ball. Instead, the Mets string hits together and start rallies led by Nimmo and Marte at the top of the lineup.

With Kershaw making his first start in essentially a month, the Mets could create stressful innings for him by starting rallies. If Kershaw has 72-75 pitches through four innings, that could be it for him.

That will give the Mets a better chance to cover the run line and win the game if they can get four to five innings against the Dodgers bullpen. Bassitt is no deGrom, but he is solid in his own right and is having a very underrated season. He should hold the Dodgers to two to three runs at the most and give the Mets a chance in this one.

Each of the first two games in this series have been decided by one run and I expect another tight game today. I will be backing the Mets on the run line.

Pick: Mets +1.5 (-130 at PointsBet)

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