Dodgers vs. Phillies Odds, Picks, Predictions: Julio Urías Faces Difficult Matchup (Friday, May 20)
Norm Hall/Getty Images. Pictured: Julio Urías.
- The Dodgers are favored against the Phillies in a matchup of lefties.
- Julio Urias will start for Los Angeles opposite Ranger Suarez in Philadelphia on Friday night.
- MLB betting analyst Nicholas Martin breaks down the matchup and makes his pick based on the odds below.
Dodgers vs. Phillies Odds
|Over/Under||8.5 (-125 / +105)|
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Dodgers will head into Philadelphia looking for revenge after being bested 3-1 when these clubs met for a four-game set last week at Dodger Stadium.
We will see a rematch of the previous series finale’s pitching matchup, which saw Ranger Suárez lead the Phillies to an 8-3 victory over Julio Urías.
The Phillies offense has been significantly more potent against left-handed pitching this season but also has been far less effective at home. Which trend will continue on Friday?
Phillies Match Up Well vs. Lefty Starter
In that start against the Phillies, Urías was touched up for eight runs (five earned) over six innings, striking out just three. Urías narrowly escaped trouble in his start before that one, allowing two runs on 11 hits over six innings against the Pirates. He had no such luck against Philadelphia.
Bryce Harper has missed the last four games, but Philadelphia is still capable of doing some damage without him.
Urías has managed a 4.47 QOPA so far in 2022, and his stuff likely hasn’t been lively enough to post strong numbers. Urías will likely improve, but don’t expect him to pitch like an ace moving forward.
Los Angeles’ powerful lineup managed three runs on five hits over seven innings against Suárez in their first matchup this season. The Dodgers have been worse against left-handed pitching this season with a 101 wRC+ and .306 wOBA.
Suárez hasn’t been brilliant in 2022, but he has managed to avoid being blown up in every start except his opening-weekend matchup with the Mets. Since then, he has progressed nicely, pitching deeper into games.
Suárez has pitched to an excellent 4.88 QOPA this season, which is certainly a firm argument as to why things could be better than we have seen so far. His xERA of 4.46 is certainly a firm knock, as is a .421 xWOBA, but I do feel we will see Suárez able to improve those marks moving forward.
Philadelphia knocked Blake Snell out of his 2022 debut on Wednesday, scoring three runs against the former Cy Young Award winner over 3 2/3 innings. The Phillies have a 117 wRC+ and .338 wOBA against lefties this season.
With how the Phillies have crushed left-handed pitching this season and my belief that Suárez will actually post similar results the rest of the season compared to Urías in 2022, I see an edge backing the Phillies in this spot.
Suárez has the stuff to earn better results than he has already this year, and I think he can manage a surprisingly strong effort here against a Dodgers lineup that has been worse against left-handed pitching.
We saw Philadelphia crush Urías last week, and I don’t think that was simply a fluke, and that this is a tough matchup for him.
With each team’s splits directly supporting a play on the Phillies here, I believe we have value backing them as an underdog here. I would play that down to +115.
Pick: Phillies +120 (play to +115)
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