Editor's Note: Matthew Boyd has been scratched and Tyler Alexander will start for the Tigers tonight.
We have another busy card on Friday's Major League Baseball loaded slate, highlighted by several matchups that could mean a lot in the postseason push.
Analysts Tanner McGrath, Colin Whitchurch and D.J. James have found three wagers they've tabbed their respective best bets, including an angle from the NL West showdown between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres.
Check out below how the trio is targeting the contests in these value plays.
MLB Odds & Picks
| 10:10 p.m. ET | |
Rays vs. Tigers
Editor's Note: Matthew Boyd has been scratched and Tyler Alexander will start for the Tigers tonight.
Tanner McGrath: The Rays are a top-notch baseball team, but I will continue to fade Michael Wacha every chance I can get.
Wacha has posted an amazing -1.2 bWAR this year, and ranks among the bottom six percent of qualified pitchers in the following statistics:
- xERA (5.89)
- xBA (.287)
- xSLG (.506)
- xwOBA (.363)
- Barrel Rate (10.6%)
Meanwhile, he's posted an ERA well over seven since August started and the Rays have finished just 3-3 in those games.
He'll now face a Detroit offense that's posted a 105 wRC+ against southpaws over the past month. And the Tigers will have Matthew Boyd, who has struggled lately but has still posted a sub-4.00 ERA on the season.
I don't want to mess with the Rays bullpen or their ability to make miraculous comebacks late in games. However, I really want to fade Wacha in this spot and think the Tigers bats have a chance to get to him early.
Therefore, I'll play the Tigers First Five Innings moneyline, which DraftKings is currently offering at +115 odds.
Royals vs. Twins
Collin Whitchurch: The Kansas City offense has been solid late, putting up six runs or more in five of the last seven games, including all three games against the division-leading White Sox, against whom the Royals took two of three.
While they only split a four-game set with the cellar-dwelling Orioles, they have a great opportunity to put up runs in bunches tonight against Minnesota's Griffin Jax, who has been getting pummeled for a majority of his 13 major-league appearances. In 58 1/3 innings ( including nine starts), Jax has allowed 17 home runs.
Only 31.9% of the balls in play against him end up on the ground, and a whopping 18.3% of the fly balls hit off him land over the fence. The Royals aren't the most powerful team in the league, but Salvador Perez is tearing the cover off the ball and Kansas City's offense should have little trouble with Jax.
I have a little bit of interest in the total here at 9.5, but Daniel Lynch has actually been pretty competent since rejoining the rotation at the end of July. He was pummeled by the lefty-mashing White Sox last time out, but in seven straight starts before, he's pitched to a 2.23 ERA and has looked pretty good doing it, including quality two quality outings against the Astros and one each against the Yankees, White Sox and Blue Jays.
That gives me some pause on the total, but I like the Royals to win outright. You can find it as high as +116 as of this writing at some shops, and I'd play it down to +110 odds.
I would also consider Kansas City's team total over 4.5 at -115, and the first five innings team total over 2.5 at +120. The full-game moneyline is my main play here, though.
Dodgers vs. Padres
| 10:10 p.m. ET |
D.J. James: The Los Angeles Dodgers split their four-game set in St. Louis this week, pushing themselves 2.5 games back in the NL West. The San Diego Padres have reclaimed the second wild-card spot and lead the Cincinnati Reds by a game. Julio Urías faces Joe Musgrove in the first game of the weekend set between these division rivals.
Neither the Dodgers nor the Padres hit off-speed pitches well. Both have sub-.300 xwOBA on breaking balls since the beginning of August. Musgrove features both his curve and slider 51.7% of the time, while Urías throws his curve 34% of the time.
In addition to that, the Padres are shockingly one of the worst lefty-hitting teams in all of baseball, especially lately. They own a 90 wRC+ against southpaws since August 1. Even some of their best sluggers, like Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis, Jr. contribute to this.
On the Los Angeles. side of things, the story remains the same. Their wRC+ against righties in that same timeframe is 92. The bottom of their lineup is abysmal when facing right-handers, and yes, this includes the struggling Cody Bellinger. Building off of the note above, they only have a .285 xwOBA on sliders and curveballs. Since Musgrove throws so many of these pitches, they will struggle.
All of these factors signal to the under. Take under 8 (-114) and play to 7.5 (-100). This should be a pitching duel.
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