Friday’s MLB Player Props: 2 Picks, Including Jordan Lyles and Luis Garcia (May 6)
Cole Burston/Getty Images. Pictured: Astros RHP Luis Garcia
While the lone day game got rained out, there’s still plenty of value on the Friday card. Let’s get our weekend started with two pitcher props that I love for this May 6 slate.
Reminder that our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Friday MLB Props
Jordan Lyles Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-174)
|Royals @ Orioles||Orioles -126|
|First Pitch||7:05 p.m. ET|
Jordan Lyles has been fine. He’s been eating innings for an Orioles staff that is devoid of quality arms — 26 over five starts with a 2-2 record is a win for the Baltimore front office.
But he’s not a quality pitcher, as seen on his Savant page:
More specifically, he’s not one to strike anyone out. He doesn’t have the velocity or movement on any of his pitches to miss bats, and he’s never struck out more than about 9.00 K/9.
This season, that number sits at 7.27 K/9. Dating back to last season, Lyles has managed to cash over 4.5 Ks in just 17 of his 37 starts. He’s managed to go over 4.5 Ks in two of his five starts, but they were against two flailing lineups in Oakland and Boston.
If Kansas City is anything, it’s disciplined. The Royals struck out at the third-lowest rate last season (21.6%) and are on pace to strike out at the third-lowest rate this season (19.9%). That’s why I’m always ready to fade pitchers against the Royals. And Lyles is a perfect pick, considering FanGraphs SaberSim projections have him at only 4.2 strikeouts today.
Pick: Under 4.5 Ks (-174)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Luis Garcia Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
|Tigers @ Astros||Astros -200|
|First Pitch||8:10 p.m. ET|
I love Luis Garcia. He’s been arguably the best rotation piece for the Astros since starting full-time last season. He ate up more than 150 innings in 2021 across 30 appearances while keeping all his expected stats under 4.00 and accruing over 3.0 WAR.
His fastball is live, his cutter is deadly, and his slider forces over a 40% whiff rate.
His strikeout numbers are down early this season, but he’s still managed to hit over 5.5 Ks in two of his four starts. More importantly, however, is both starts are at home. In his career, Garcia’s K/9 is up over 10.00 at home and below 8.50 on the road.
As a result, he’s gone over this number in 14 of his 20 career starts at Minute Maid. That 70% hit rate would imply -233 odds to the over, giving us plenty of value there.
Meanwhile, the Tigers struck out at the third-highest rate last season (25.7%) and are on pace to strike out at the sixth-highest rate this season (25%). This is a swing-and-miss Tigers team that has posted the eighth-highest whiff rate this season (27.4%).
Our props tool projects Garcia for 6.0 strikeouts on Friday, giving us enough value to play this line.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (-115)
Action Labs Grade: 6/10
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