Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Saturday, September 5.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- P.Messick Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+114), 1u | Bet to -130
- Guardians -150, 1.5u | Bet to -165
- Guardians TT Over 3.5 (-132), 0.66u | Bet to -135
- Pirates (F5) -180, 1u | Bet to -215
- Royals (F5) -110, 0.55u | Bet to -120
- Royals TT Over 4.5 (-115), 0.58u | Bet to -125
- C.Cavalli Over 5.5 Strikeouts +118, 0.5u | Bet to 100
- Nationals/Dodgers Under 8 (-115), 0.58u | Bet through 8
Tigers @ Guardians Pick
We’re really going to pound one side of this one in several ways.
Framber Valdez is just not that guy anymore, allowing more than two earned runs in over half of his last 20 starts.
His strikeout rate is down to a career low 17.5%, nearly six points below last season, his 8.6 BB% is his highest since 2021 and even his 54 GB% is a career worst.
Framber’s 4.36 ERA is commiserate with most of his indicators this year.
The Guardians have a number of switch hitters they can flip around, while batters from either side of the plate exceed a .315 wOBA against Valdez this season.
The projected Cleveland lineup (BARTOLO) averages a 117 wRC+ against southpaws this season, including Chase DeLauter, Jose Ramirez and Jo Adell all above 145.
A projected defense at -4 FRV (Fielding Run Value) may not help Valdez much either, while the Tigers also own the league’s third worst bullpen estimators over the last 30 days (5.05 FIP, 4.55 xFIP, 4.19 SIERA).
Parker Messick has allowed 12 earned runs over 10 starts since the end of June. His velocity is up 0.8 mph (94.7) since then with a 17.3 K-BB% that’s lower than his 18.5% season mark, but he’s allowed just 3.0% Barrels/BBE and a 31.1 HardHit% during this stretch.
The projected Detroit lineup does average a 111 wRC+ against LHP, but also average just a 78 wRC+ over the last 30 days with Hao-Yu Lee (121) the only batter above 97.
Messick has struck out RHBs (26.1%) a little bit more often than LHBs (23.2%) and of the 24 batters I project him to face on Saturday, 16 are from the right-hand side. Also, through those first 24 batters, the Detroit projected lineup averages a 26.3 K% against LHP.
Based on the number of LH & RHBs I expect Messick to face, he should receive around a 7% park boost with projected umpire Austin Jones adding +0.6% on the run scoring end, but closer to a 6% bump for strikeouts.
This could set up for a strong strikeout effort for Messick, who has only struck out nine of 46 batters since striking out 10 Giants three starts back.
When he’s not missing bats, Messick should be aided by a projected Cleveland defense worth 11 FRV and then supported by a Cleveland bullpen with the 8th best estimators in the league over the last month (3.69 FIP, 4.15 xFIP, 3.43 SIERA).
BARTOLO also ranks the Cleveland bullpen 13th best, while regarding Detroit 26th.
Let’s start with Messick’s strikeout prop, currently only available on FanDuel (o6.5 +114), which I like up to around -130 and would even consider laddering to 8.
Next, for some reason, only FanDuel and prediction markets are currently offering numbers on this game, but MLB is confirming both pitchers as is FanDuel. You may want to try to list Messick in case of any shenanigans, but the current number being floated is around -150, which I would play to around -165.
With an added 1-2% weather boost, which, along with the slight umpire boost, brings this run environment to about neutral, I’ll look to win another 0.5o on Clevealnd’s team total (o3.5 -132), though I’d only play that to -135.
Picks: P.Messick Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+114), 1u | Bet to -130, Guardians -150, 1.5u | Bet to -165, Guardians TT Over 3.5 (-132), 0.66u | Bet to -135
Angels @ Pirates Pick
Yusei Kikuchi has been blasted for seven runs over 12 innings since returning from an elongated IL stay.
He has struck out 10 of 50 batters with just two walks, but also allowed five barrels with a 54.1 HardHit%.
On the season (just nine starts), his underlying numbers aren’t as bad as his 5.65 ERA (.331 BABIP), but still around four and a half.
The projected Pittsburgh lineup against this left-hander averages a 128 wRC+ at home this season with only Nick York (93) below average. They also average a 105 wRC+ against LHP and 102 wRC+ over the last month.
The defense behind Kikuchi projects to be nearly average (-2 FRV) and while the bullpen only projects 17th via BARTOLO, they do have the 2nd best estimators in the league over the last 30 days.
In a breakout season, Braxton Ashcraft is wielding a 20 K-BB%, while allowing just 6.2% Barrels/BBE. He did have some issues with LHBs, but now has them below a .320 wOBA and xwOBA on the season and just a .288 wOBA over his last four starts. That’s a weakness in a weak LAA lineup to begin with anyway.
In fact, the projected Angels’ lineup does not reach a 90 average wRC+ either on the road, against RHP or over the last 30 days. In fact, among BARTOLO’s projected nine, only one batter projected to bat lower than fourth even reaches a 90 wRC+ in any three of those categories (Oswald Peraza 98 wRC+ on the road).
The Pittsburgh projected defense is just a bit worse than the Angels (-8 FRV), while the bullpen owns the 7th best estimators in the league for the preceding month.
We’re going to scrap the bullpens here because I believe Ashcraft is the big edge here, as I have him more than a run superior to Kikuchi, along with the Pittsburgh offense owning a near 20 point wRC+ edge in this spot.
When we also add in smaller edges like home field and a projected 7 BRR (Base Running Runs) advantage, I have the Pirates somewhere around 71% to prevail through the first five innings.
Picks: Pirates (F5) -180, 1u | Bet to -215
Blue Jays @ Royals Pick
Kudos to future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer for turning back the clock and striking out 10 Mariners over seven one-hit innings last time out to push himself further up the all-time strikeout list.
Considering he had a previous season high of 5, done just once in 12 other starts, the evidence points against this continuing. Including his last outing, Scherzer is still sitting on an 8.0 K-BB% with 9.1% Barrels/BBE allowed this year.
Left-handed batters have been a massive problem for him (.363 wOBA allowed) and left-handed power is a sudden strength of this improving Kansas City lineup with each of Carter Jensen (115 wRC+, .246 ISO), Vinnie Pasquantino (138, .221) and Jac Caglianone (113, .153) all doing some damage to RHPs.
Each of those three also exceed a 145 wRC+ over the last 30 days too.
BARTOLO projects a dangerous Royals’ lineup averaging a 110 RC+ at home, 105 vs RHP and 117 over the last month.
Toronto projects the stronger of two good defenses with 25 FRV.
It’s been a long…LONG time since I’ve endorsed Seth Lugo, who has pushed his ERA above five after allowing nine runs to the Guardians last time out, the fourth time in his last six starts he’s allowed at least five runs, but with a 10.4 K-BB% and just 7.6% Barrels/BBE allowed on the season, he’s still been a little more than one-third of a run better than Scherzer.
Scherzer’s xERA is almost a run lower, but contact neutral indicators (SIERA, xFIP) are more than half a run higher. When in doubt, contact neutral indicators are generally more reliable in small sample sizes like Scherzer's and even Lugo's in less than a season.
Lugo is also allowing LHBs a .364 wOBA, but the Blue Jays are running out Brett Bateman (111 wRC+, .051 ISO v RHP), Jesus Sanchez (121, .176), Nathan Lukes (114, .135) and Andres Gimenez (80, .121). Not a lot of fear stricken by those names.
As mentioned, the Royals also have a quality defense, projecting just a bit worse than Toronto (14 FRV) and we’re not going to consider bullpens here because I want no part of Kansas City’s.
However, the Royals also add home field and a small projected 7 BRR edge.
With essentially nothing except defense favoring the Blue Jays and even that a small margin, the near even market here just doesn’t smell right.
Still, I can’t entirely trust Lugo and am splitting up a unit between the Royals F5 and their team total (4.5 -115) with temperatures expected to be in the mid-90s again, giving this run environment an expected 7-8% bump including park effects and umpire (Shane Livensparger).
Picks: Royals (F5) -110, 0.55u | Bet to -120, Royals TT Over 4.5 (-115), 0.58u | Bet to -125
Nationals @ Dodgers Pick
Cade Cavalli is the second young 2026 breakout arm being backed today. No, we’re not siding with Washington in this game, but we are looking for Cavalli to pitch well.
Striking out 44 of his last 114 batters faced with at least eight in five straight starts, Cavalli has driven his strikeout rate up to 27.7% on the season (20.5 K-BB%). He has a 15.5 SwStr% during this stretch.
On the season, he is striking out RHBs 29.8% of the time and LHBs a little less often (26.8%).
He did leave his last game after just 16 batters and four innings (and still struck out eight) because of a calf issue, but has checked out fine during the week, going through his normal routine between starts.
A fair assumption, I believe, is assuming 22 batters faced. He did not fall below that number in any of his previous seven starts.
Projecting Ohtani to play, that would be 13 RHBs and 9 LHBs via BARTOLO, only averaging a 20.3 K% through the first 22 batters to face Cavalli.
That’s not a lot, nor does he get any bump at all from the park, umpire and weather situation, but this is a number Cavalli has hit in 13 of his last 20 starts, the Dodgers are slumping with their projected lineup averaging an 82 wRC+ over the last month and Ohtani may not even play.
The projected defense behind Cavalli has accumulated 4 FRV, but a bullpen with the fourth worst estimators in the league over the last month (4.94 FIP, 4.56 xFIP, 4.14 SIERA) is likely the largest obstacle to part of our goal here. BARTOLO ranks them 28th as well.
After finishing April, the Dodgers generally freeze their best pitchers before thawing them out for the stretch run. Since Glasnow’s thawing, he’s struck out 13 of 44 batters, allowing four runs in 12 innings with one walk.
He has a 25 K-BB%, while allowing a 37.9 HardHit% in nine starts this season.
For reasons beyond the scope of this article, pitch modeling has been merely average to slightly above (4.04 Bot ERA, 104 Pitching+), but he only otherwise has one estimator reaching three (3.17 dERA).
The Washington lineup has James Wood back in the fold, but even with his 162 wRC+ against RHP, Saturday’s projected lineup averages just an 86 wRC+ on the road, 94 vs RHP and 85 over the last 30 days. It’s been a long season for a young team that has showed some punch at times, but seems to be wearing down.
The projected Dodger defense is at 2 FRV, combining for 6 FRV between the two teams.
The Dodger bullpen has the 9th best estimators in the league over the last 30 days (3.54 FIP, 4.27 xFIP, 3.63 SIERA), but is BARTOLO’s 3rd ranked unit.
Dodger Stadium is a slightly positive run environment (+2%) with weather expected to be neutral, but a pitcher friendly umpire (Rob Drake -2.9%) scheduled behind the plate. We could have a slightly negative environment on Saturday, but let’s call it neutral for our purposes.
Even with Ohtani projected in Saturday's lineup, I’m still falling short of the 8 run total being offered and have seen Action Labs track a reverse line move on this number already.
We just may have to say our prayers for a few innings once Cavalli exits.
Picks: C.Cavalli Over 5.5 Strikeouts +118, 0.5u | Bet to 100, Under 8 (-115), 0.58u | Bet through 8
Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Saturday, September 5
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- P.Messick Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+114), 1u | Bet to -130
- Guardians -150, 1.5u | Bet to -165
- Guardians TT Over 3.5 (-132), 0.66u | Bet to -135
- Pirates (F5) -180, 1u | Bet to -215
- Royals (F5) -110, 0.55u | Bet to -120
- Royals TT Over 4.5 (-115), 0.58u | Bet to -125
- C.Cavalli Over 5.5 Strikeouts +118, 0.5u | Bet to 100
- Nationals/Dodgers Under 8 (-115), 0.58u | Bet through 8
