Giants vs. Dodgers Odds, Pick & Preview: Can Carlos Rodon Shut Down LA’s Vaunted Offense? (May 3)

Giants vs. Dodgers Odds

For the first time since their NLDS bout last season, the Los Angeles Dodgers welcome their divisional rival San Francisco Giants for a two-game series set to start Tuesday night.

The Giants dropped two out of three against the Washington Nationals, while the Dodgers took hold of first place in the division with a series win over the Detroit Tigers.

Looking to bounce back, the Giants send ace Carlos Rodon to the mound. He has yet to give up more than one run in any outing this season. He'll be matched with fellow southpaw Julio Urias, who has given up just two runs over his last three starts.

Can the Dodgers defend their home field against their NL West rival on Tuesday night, or will Rodon prove to be too much for the bats to handle?

Giants Have Ace In Rodon

Rodon has quickly entered the discussion for best pitchers in baseball. 

In his four starts since joining the Giants, the southpaw has thrown 23 innings of three-run ball, giving up 11 hits while striking out 38. Opponents have a .158 xBA against Rodon, which ranks inside the top three percent of all pitchers. 

Rodon has been elite in just about every metric. He ranks in the top six percent of all pitchers in xERA (1.76), xSLG (.255) and xwOBA (.228). His FIP is 0.96 and xFIP 2.21, proving none of his early-season success has been a fluke.

While he does have three pitches in his arsenal, Rodon mainly sticks to his fastball-slider combo. 

His slider has generated a whiff percentage of 53.8 and opponents have been unable to generate much success against his fastball (.166 xBA, .185 xSLG). His fastball is up nearly a mile an hour this year, too. 

While the Giants do struggle against left-handed pitching — .196 average — they have an on-base percentage of .301. This is a disciplined offense that, despite being ravaged by injuries and the COVID-19 bug early on, has continued to be productive. Their No. 3 bullpen in baseball provides a large boost, too.

San Francisco should see an offensive boost quite possibly tonight, with Mike Yastrzemski (COVID-19) and LaMonte Wade Jr. (knee) both in Los Angeles after stints on the injured list.

Dodgers Hope Urias Can Keep It Going

The Los Angeles Dodgers have the best ERA in all of baseball, nearly 0.4 runs lower than the next-best New York Yankees. The anchor has been starting pitching and Urias has picked up where he left off in 2021.

Urias has a 2.50 xERA over four starts and has limited opponents to a .188 xBA. And while his xERA sits at 2.59, per FanGraphs, there are signs of negative regression for the southpaw. 

His xFIP (4.60) sits over two runs higher than his ERA, showing that he’s been quite fortunate with balls put into play. Opponents have not been chasing Urias, his strikeout numbers are down and his max exit velocity ranks in the bottom seven percent of all pitchers. 

It’s all important to note that Urias’ velocity has dipped in 2022. His fastball is down 1.8 mph and all his offspeed pitches are down a tad, too. 

Opponents are seeing the 25-year-old better than in years past and his walk percentage has nearly doubled in the early going. 

That’s not to say Urias isn't among the best pitchers in baseball — he is — just that his advanced metrics indicate there are some signs for concern entering Tuesday night’s matchup.  

The Dodgers' offense is also way more efficient against right-handed pitching than southpaws. Across the board, their average, on-base percentage and slugging all take a pretty hefty dip against left-handers, and they’ll have their hands full once again versus Rodon.

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Giants-Dodgers Pick

This is the perfect spot to back Rodon and the Giants on the road. There are no indicators that the southpaw will slow down, as he's been elite in nearly every advanced metric and has even seen improvement across the board when it comes to velocity and control of his pitches.

There's no signs of negative regression inbound for Rodon, while there are some causes for concern when looking at Urias. There's too many red flags to feel confident in backing the Dodgers here.

Urias' xFIP is two runs higher than his xERA and both his control and velocity have been inconsistent early on in 2022.

The edge here is starting pitching. Both offenses struggle against left-handers and both bullpens rank inside the top five in ERA. So at plus money, it's worth backing the better pitcher in this battle of the southpaws to cap off Tuesday night's MLB slate.

Back Rodon and the Giants to take home the first of many entertaining NL West bouts between these Goliaths.

Pick: Giants (+127), Down to (+115)