The St. Louis Cardinals host the Cleveland Guardians on April 13, 2026. First pitch from Busch Stadium is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CARD.
The Guardians are favored by -120 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Cardinals are -100 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Guardians vs Cardinals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Guardians vs Cardinals Prediction
- Guardians vs Cardinals Pick: Under 8
My Guardians vs Cardinals best bet is on the runs total under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Cardinals Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -164 | 8 -110o / -107u | -120 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +137 | 8 -110o / -107u | -100 |
- Guardians vs Cardinals spread: Guardians -1.5 (+137), Cardinals +1.5 (-164)
- Guardians vs Cardinals over/under: 8 (-110o / -107u)
- Guardians vs Cardinals moneyline: Guardians -120, Cardinals -100
Guardians vs Cardinals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Gavin Williams (CLE) | Stat | LHP Matthew Liberatore (STL) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 0-0 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.2 |
| 2.04/3.61 | ERA /xERA | 3.38/5.54 |
| 4.16/3.50 | FIP / xFIP | 6.08/4.71 |
| 1.08 | WHIP | 1.50 |
| 16.4% | K-BB% | 7.0% |
| 50.0% | GB% | 38.2% |
| 105 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 95 | Location+ | 102 |
Guardians vs Cardinals Preview, Betting Analysis
The Guardians (9-7) have built their early-season success on the back of a rotation that doesn't just eat innings—it dominates them. Tonight, they hand the ball to Gavin Williams, who has emerged as a legitimate AL Cy Young candidate in the opening month.
Williams enters this start with a 2.04 ERA and a blistering 1.07 WHIP. His ability to miss bats (25 K in 17.2 IP) has been his calling card, but more importantly for Under bettors, he has been elite at limiting "cheap" runs. With a fastball that touches triple digits and an increased reliance on a devastating curveball, Williams is the type of "stopper" that keeps opposing team totals in the basement.
The Cardinals (8-7) aren't far behind in the "competence" category. While Matthew Liberatore (3.38 ERA) doesn't possess the same strikeout ceiling as Williams, he has proven to be a master of navigation.
Despite a higher WHIP (1.50), Liberatore has been effective at inducing soft contact when it matters most. Against a Guardians lineup that currently ranks in the bottom third of the league in slugging, Liberatore’s "bend-but-don't-break" style should play well at home.
Guardians vs Cardinals Picks
The Silent Sharp Unders system has flagged the interleague clash between the Cleveland Guardians and the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. This system ignores "streak-chasing" and instead focuses on subtle market movements in games featuring two competent, winning clubs.
Cleveland’s bullpen remains one of the most stable units in baseball. If Williams gives them six strong innings, the combination of Cade Smith and the Guardians' back-end arms makes a late-inning rally for St. Louis unlikely.
Both teams are hitting near a combined .220 average over the last week. While the weather in St. Louis is a pleasant 23°C (73°F), the 14 mph breeze blowing across the diamond could help neutralize any fly balls that would otherwise clear the fence.
The Silent Sharp Unders system targets regular-season MLB games where both teams are performing well, yet the total has quietly dropped from open to close. These are games featuring competent, winning teams with recent success, stable weather conditions, and closing totals in a common scoring range.
Despite both teams showing strength, the market subtly favors the under, likely due to matchup specifics, pitching, or pace factors. By following this soft signal—when the public eye is more focused on win streaks and not totals—this system finds value in betting against inflated scoring expectations.
The market data shows that in these high-level matchups, the "under" actually holds the edge. The line opened at 8.5 at several offshore books and has settled at a firm 8, indicating that the "sharps" have already weighed in.
Pick: Under 8
