Israel will play the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic on Monday, March 9, in Miami, Florida. The game will start at 12 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on FS1.
The Dominican Republic is a -1700 Moneyline favorite. The total is set at 12 runs
Here's my Israel vs Dominican Republic prediction and World Baseball Classic picks for March 9, 2026.
Israel vs Dominican Republic Prediction
- My Pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Tournament MVP (+2500, FanDuel | Play to +2300)
My Israel vs Dominican Republic best bet is on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to win the Tournament MVP.
Israel vs Dominican Republic Odds
| Dominican Republic Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
NA | 12 -110 / -110 | -1700 |
| Israel Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
NA | 12 -110 / -110 | +890 |
- Israel vs Dominican Republic Moneyline: Dominican Republic -1700, Israel +890
- Israel vs Dominican Republic Total: 12 (-110 / -110)
Israel vs Dominican Republic World Baseball Classic Picks
Israel Betting Preview
Israel won its must-win game on Sunday, beating Nicaragua, 5-0. It was one of the few games where Israel won't be a major underdog.
Israel opted to hold top starter Dean Kremer back for Saturday's matchup against Venezuela, saving him for a much more winnable game against Nicaragua. It also used more of its top relievers when securing Sunday's win.
This matchup appears to be much more into "punt" territory once again.
Israel has not yet confirmed a starter, but lefty Ryan Prager seems to be the most likely candidate. He will be asked to handle an absolutely stacked Dominican lineup with a tired bullpen behind him.
Lefties match up a little better than righties against the Dominican Republic, but this would still be the most difficult lineup Prager has ever faced by a significant margin.
Prager earned All-SEC honors in 2024 before being selected in the ninth round of the 2025 MLB draft by the Cleveland Guardians. Prager's arsenal features a low-nineties fastball that plays up due to a high release point, a slider, and a changeup, which grades out as his best offering.
Prager pitched to a 4.21 ERA across 83 and 1/3 innings last season with Texas A&M, as well as a 4.15 ERA across 4 and 1/3 innings in Single A (two appearances).
Relative to much of Group D and many of the pure bottom feeders in the tournament, Israel holds a fairly solid lineup, compiled almost entirely of major leaguers and batters from higher minor league levels. Harrison Bader and Spencer Horwitz lead the way up front, having slugged .449 and .434, respectively, at the MLB level last season.
Action Network's Sean Zerillo projects Israel's lineup at close to an 80 wRC+ in MLB-equivalent terms. I certainly recommend checking out his work on this tournament, particularly for the teams featuring less MLB talent, as his lineup projections are quite useful.
Dominican Republic Betting Preview
Heading into the tournament, the Dominican Republic picked up steam as a trendy outright pick with prices in the +450 range.
It will almost certainly need to knock off the USA and Japan to take home the championship, which is why its price was initially higher than Japan's.
The Dominican Republic was always likely to cruise through its opening pair of matchups against Nicaragua and the Netherlands, but their first two performances were eye-popping nonetheless. It holds a +20 run differential through the first two games of the tournament, and there certainly felt to be a tangible swagger from the team as it terrorized two softer-pitching staffs.
The Dominican Republic's outright betting price has ticked down to +360 at the time of writing, which is not overly surprising. The lineup features exclusively elite MLB talents, including Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Manny Machado, Junior Caminero, and Ketel Marte.
Zerillo projects the DR lineup at an offensive wRC+ of 130, while the group should continue to be excellent in the field, featuring some of the better fielders in the world.
Brayan Bello is expected to get the start on Monday. Bello pitched to a 3.35 ERA and 4.39 xFIP across 166 and 2/3 innings of work with the Boston Red Sox last season. He held a Stuff+ rating of 97 and a Pitching+ rating of 98.
How To Bet My Israel vs Dominican Republic Pick
It's getting close to last call for bettors looking to get involved with DR to win the tournament.
It was always expected to win its first two matchups, and yet the outright price is now down to +360 following the two extremely convincing wins. In that regard, you could argue that the value is gone.
Still, I don't hate the idea of backing the Dominicans at the current price. It will be a fairly large favorite against Japan and should be priced around +115 in a presumptive semi-final versus the USA, which will likely decide the tournament.
Another way to capitalize on the Dominican Republic's strong chances in the tournament is to back Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to win tournament MVP at +2500 (FanDuel).
Though Guerrero Jr. is a little behind some batters on the team currently in the race for MVP, he's still off to a great start with six RBI's through two games, having gone 3-for-8 at the plate with a home run.
Guerrero had a historically strong playoff run last season for the Blue Jays and seems well-positioned to build on that success, working out of an excellent spot in a stacked lineup. He shouldn't be too far behind in the race heading towards the pointy end of the tournament, and he appears to be among the more likely candidates from the roster to step up in the biggest moments.
With regards to this game, I'm not seeing value with any bet at the time of writing. The betting odds suggest the Dominican Republic will win 93% of the time, which, if anything, seems a touch low.
Pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Tournament MVP (+2500, FanDuel | Play to +2300)
