The Minnesota Twins host the Kansas City Royals on May 23, 2025. First pitch from Target Field is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSKC.
Read our Royals vs Twins prediction and MLB pick below.
My Royals vs Twins Prediction
- Royals vs Twins Pick: Twins ML (-190, BetMGM)
My Royals vs Twins best bet is on Minnesota ML. Check our live MLB odds page to find the best odds.
Royals vs Twins Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -145 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
Royals vs Twins Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Noah Cameron (KCR) | Stat | RHP Pablo Lopez (MIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 4-2 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.5 |
| 0.71 / 3.01 | ERA / xERA | 2.40 / 2.81 |
| 4.34 / 5.03 | FIP / xFIP | 2.43 / 3.08 |
| 0.63 | WHIP | 0.93 |
| 2.2% | K-BB% | 22.6% |
| 41.2% | GB% | 42.7% |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 96 | Location+ | 117 |
Tanner McGrath’s Royals vs Twins Preview
Friday is an excellent spot to fade Royals starting pitcher Noah Cameron.
The rookie is up in the Kansas City rotation because Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo are on the IL. While he’s performed admirably in his two starts, I’m positive he’ll allow more than one earned run across the subsequent 12 frames.
The 0.71 ERA is buoyed by a .059 BABIP and a 100% strand rate. Under the hood, the 25-year-old boasts a 3.01 xERA, 4.34 FIP and 5.03 xFIP behind a measly 2.2% strikeout minus walk rate and underwhelming stuff (93 Stuff+, 96 Location+, 92 Pitching+, 4.72 botERA).
Cameron was supposed to have a 95 MPH fastball, but it’s been sitting closer to 90 across his first few MLB frames. Even worse, his ever-important changeup has earned just two whiffs in 25 attempts.
Cameron doesn’t look nearly as good as we expected, and he’s due for some serious negative regression. I’m betting it comes against a Twins lineup that has been reasonably hot over the past fortnight (112 wRC+, ninth among MLB lineups during the stretch).
For what it’s worth, one of our Action PRO Systems popped for this game: Betting Through The ERA Fog. The system looks to fade overvalued pitchers with uber-low ERAs.
Conversely, I’m always happy to trust Twins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez, who is consistently a top-of-the-line MLB starter.
However, Lopez might be ascending to a new level. He’s on pace for a career-best earned run indicators (2.40 ERA, 2.81 xERA, 2.43 FIP, 3.08 xFIP) behind a career-best strikeout minus walk rate (22.6%). The stuff is questionable (95 Stuff+), but the command and control is elite (117 Location+, 5.1% walk rate). Also, the fastball still looks good (12% swinging-strike rate, 21% CSW rate).
He should shut down the Royals, who have been fumbling and bumbling at the plate all season (74 wRC+, 29th among MLB lineups).
Both bullpens are fully rested, but I trust the Twins' relievers far more, as they rank second among MLB teams in reliever xFIP (3.31).
Pick: Twins ML (-190, BetMGM)
