The San Francisco Giants host the Kansas City Royals on Tuesday, May 20, 2025. First pitch from Oracle Park is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
After dropping the series opener, can the Giants get back on track on Tuesday night with Hayden Birdsong on the hill?
Find my Royals vs Giants prediction and pick for Tuesday, May 20, below.
Royals vs Giants Prediction, Moneyline Pick
- Royals vs Giants pick: Giants Moneyline (-135) | Play to -155
My Royals vs Giants best bet for Tuesday is the Giants moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Royals vs Giants Odds, Spread, Total
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +115 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -135 |
Royals vs Giants Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Michael Lorenzen (KC) | Stat | RHP Hayden Birdsong (SF) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | W-L | 1-0 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.2 |
| 3.76/4.03 | ERA /xERA | 2.31/4.14 |
| 4.52/4.17 | FIP / xFIP | 4.73/4.30 |
| 1.23 | WHIP | 1.29 |
| 13.6% | K-BB% | 14.9% |
| 39% | GB% | 32.8% |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 107 |
| 106 | Location+ | 88 |
Royals vs Giants Preview, Prediction
Royals Betting Preview: Lorenzen Regression Expected
As expected, Michael Lorenzen saw some regression in his last outing after putting forth his best stuff of the season versus Boston two turns ago.
He struck out just five over 7 1/3 innings, surrendering four runs and yet another home run to bring his season total to nine.
The veteran righty is pitching to a decent complement of fly balls, which has worked out with the Royals ranking 14th in Outs Above Average in the outfield and climbing the ranks this month with the sixth-best mark.
That's all well and good when the ball isn't coming back with a ton of interest, but the story has remained the same for Lorenzen, who has yielded another middling hard-hit rate above the league average. That's led to a .441 Expected Slugging, the second-worst of his career, and nine homers in nine starts.
Overall, though, it's not as if Lorenzen has been bad. His walk rate has dropped with each start, sitting at a cool 6.8% now, and that's a pretty crucial figure when you consider his career average is 9.5%, which is a full point worse than the league norm.
Giants Betting Preview: A Chance for Birdsong
The day has finally come for Hayden Birdsong to start once again. He was effective in that role a season ago, and when he broke camp with the team last month many expected him to take the final spot in the rotation — only for Landon Roupp to snag it.
Now, Roupp has done nothing to lose his spot, but Jordan Hicks certainly has — and we'll see Birdsong on the bump as a result.
I have to say I'm pretty excited to see what he can do. His stuff grades out quite well by the metrics, and so far this season, he has more or less matched his strikeout numbers from a year ago.
He's down a couple of points, but the sample's been limited — and for his brief career, he's punching out 27.2% of the batters he faces.
Birdsong, like Lorenzen, will give up contact in the air –and give up home runs. He surrendered two against the Arizona Diamondbacks in his last appearance, which came six days ago, and his barrel rate sits in the bottom quarter of the league.
He's also struggled to limit the walks, but the good news is he's consistently been capable of moving through lineups and racking up outs with a positive .224 Expected Batting Average and strong strikeout numbers.
Birdsong's been operating in a long relief role, maxing out at three innings on four occasions this season.
While we won't reasonably expect him to pitch six or seven frames here, I do think he'll throw at least four or five, meaning he's very much involved in our handicap.
Royals vs Giants Prediction, Betting Analysis
Kansas City cannot hit the broad side of a barn right now. It has sported an insanely low 5.4% walk rate in the last two weeks, and when you consider this team is slugging just .372 and hitting .255, there is nothing to fear.
Sure, the Royals will likely not fall victim to Birdsong's strikeout-happy arsenal with their low 17.7% punchout rate over that span, but they also don't seem to pose much of a threat to a guy whose biggest weaknesses are walks and homers.
On the flip side, the Giants are sporting a so-so .140 Isolated Power over the last two weeks, but they come in well ahead of Kansas City's offense. They've also been incredibly patient at the dish with a walk rate over 9% — and that's a potential game-changer against a pitcher who's long had control issues.
I'm feeling very confident in Birdsong here, and I'm equally certain the Giants are in a much better place offensively. Roll with the home team.
Pick: Giants ML (-145)
Royals vs Giants Betting Trends
Giants vs Royals Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Oracle Park in San Francisco, Calif. |
| Date: | Tuesday, May 20 |
| Time: | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | MLB Network |
