Machado Trade Makes Dodgers Favorite to Win National League Pennant

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers acquired Manny Machado from the Baltimore Orioles.
  • After the trade went official, the Dodgers' odds were slashed, and they are now +700 to win the World Series.
  • The other two teams linked to the former Orioles star, Milwaukee and Philadelphia, didn't see their odds move in either direction.

The Baltimore Orioles have traded Manny Machado to the Dodgers for a package of prospects headlined by outfielder Yusniel Diaz. As expected, the trade has caused bookmakers to shorten Los Angeles’ odds.

Coming into the All-Star break, the Dodgers were +800 (11.1% implied probability) to win the World Series, +300 (25%) to win the National League pennant and -150 (60%) to win the NL West. After the trade, Los Angeles moved to +650 (13.3%) to win it all, +250 (28.6%) to win the pennant and -200 (66.7%) to win the division.

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They are now the lone favorite to win the National League, ahead of the Cubs who stayed at +300. Interestingly Philadelphia and Milwaukee, the other two teams heavily linked to Machado, didn’t see their odds move one way or the other.

The Dodgers came into the season at +640 to win it all, the third-highest odds of any team in baseball.

Machado entered the All-Star break with a .963 OPS, 24 homers and 65 RBI and is having the best season of his career. Machado has never hit .300 — which he is currently doing. He’s also never finished a season with an OPS of .900 or a Slugging Pct. above .550 and he’s currently achieving both feats.

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Over the last two seasons, Baltimore has been one of the worst teams in all of baseball. The Orioles are 103-149 (-41.7 units) with Machado in the lineup and are 0-7 (-7 units) with him out of the lineup. Over that span, the Orioles are the least profitable team in baseball (-48.7 units), including 50-105 (-39.2 units) as an underdog and they have only one pitcher who started more than two games and was profitable for bettors: Ubaldo Jimenez at 12-13 (+1.2 units).

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