Machado Trade Makes Dodgers Favorite to Win National League Pennant

The Baltimore Orioles have traded Manny Machado to the Dodgers for a package of prospects headlined by outfielder Yusniel Diaz. As expected, the trade has caused bookmakers to shorten Los Angeles' odds.

Coming into the All-Star break, the Dodgers were +800 (11.1% implied probability) to win the World Series, +300 (25%) to win the National League pennant and -150 (60%) to win the NL West. After the trade, Los Angeles moved to +650 (13.3%) to win it all, +250 (28.6%) to win the pennant and -200 (66.7%) to win the division.

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They are now the lone favorite to win the National League, ahead of the Cubs who stayed at +300. Interestingly Philadelphia and Milwaukee, the other two teams heavily linked to Machado, didn't see their odds move one way or the other.

The Dodgers came into the season at +640 to win it all, the third-highest odds of any team in baseball.

Machado entered the All-Star break with a .963 OPS, 24 homers and 65 RBI and is having the best season of his career. Machado has never hit .300 — which he is currently doing. He's also never finished a season with an OPS of .900 or a Slugging Pct. above .550 and he's currently achieving both feats.

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Over the last two seasons, Baltimore has been one of the worst teams in all of baseball. The Orioles are 103-149 (-41.7 units) with Machado in the lineup and are 0-7 (-7 units) with him out of the lineup. Over that span, the Orioles are the least profitable team in baseball (-48.7 units), including 50-105 (-39.2 units) as an underdog and they have only one pitcher who started more than two games and was profitable for bettors: Ubaldo Jimenez at 12-13 (+1.2 units).