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MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions for Mariners vs. Yankees: How to Bet Luis Castillo’s Seattle Debut Against Gerrit Cole (Wednesday, Aug. 3)

MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions for Mariners vs. Yankees: How to Bet Luis Castillo’s Seattle Debut Against Gerrit Cole (Wednesday, Aug. 3) article feature image
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Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: Gerrit Cole

  • The Yankees are strong home favorites this afternoon against the Mariners.
  • Luis Castillo makes his debut for Seattle, while ace Gerrit Cole takes the mound for New York.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Mariners vs. Yankees Odds

Mariners Odds +150
Yankees Odds -185
Over/Under 7.5
Time 1:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The trade deadline has come and gone and the Seattle Mariners were among the buyers as they continue their playoff push.

Newly acquired Luis Castillo will take the mound after the Mariners took down the New York Yankees Tuesday night on the back of a Sam Haggerty pinch-hit go-ahead home run in the seventh inning.

He’ll match up against Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, who will look to bounce back from a six-inning, five-run outing against the Royals to close July.

Can either offense get going against two top-level arms on Wednesday afternoon, or will it be a quiet one in the Bronx?

Castillo Debuts For Mariners

Castillo makes his Mariners debut on Wednesday afternoon fresh off a trade from the Cincinnati Reds.

The right-hander has been virtually unhittable in the month leading up to the trade deadline, posting a 1.93 ERA over 28 innings. Included in that four-game stretch is a seven-inning, one-run outing against the Yankees. He gave up just two hits.

What’s even more impressive — and beneficial for the Mariners — is Castillo’s split stats. Away from Great American Ballpark, Castillo has a 2.09 ERA in seven starts.

Opponents have a .220 xBA and .328 xSLG against the 29-year-old. The only area where he’s below average is walk rate, and even then he’s in the 44th percentile of all pitchers.

While the Mariners hold onto the second wild-card spot in the AL, production from the offense has tailed off. Over the last 14 days, Seattle ranks 25th in wRC+, 24th in isolated power and 29th in wOBA.

It’s also important to note that their two best hitters could be out for the series finale as Julio Rodriguez is on the injured list and Ty France is battling a wrist injury.

France did take swings off the tee Tuesday but his status remains questionable. He has missed Seattle’s last three games.

Which Cole Will Yankees Get?

It has been a rollercoaster of a July for Cole.

While the right-hander has thrown at least six innings in all six starts, his ERA sat at 4.03 and he’s surrendered five runs on two separate occasions.

Cole has an elite strikeout rate above 30 percent and opponents only have a .208 xBA. Expected indicators also sit well below his ERA of 3.30, too, inferring that he’s slightly underperformed thus far.

He’s been impressive in nearly every advanced metric outside of a below-average hard-hit rate. But even then, his barrel rate has dropped over two percent from 2021.

Cole also has a sparkling 2.55 ERA in 11 home starts and has actually given up fewer home runs at Yankee Stadium (eight) than on the road (10) in 16 fewer innings.

The Yankees’ offense remains one of the best in baseball even without Giancarlo Stanton anchoring the middle of the lineup. Anthony Rizzo has homered in four straight games and, well … AL MVP favorite Aaron Judge needs no explanation.

New York also bolstered its already dominant bullpen at the trade deadline. The ‘pen ranks second in ERA (2.90), fourth in xFIP (3.63) and has given up the second-fewest home runs in baseball.

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Mariners-Yankees Pick

If you like pitcher duels, then Wednesday afternoon is the perfect one for you.

Castillo has been one of the best arms in baseball over the last month and now makes his debut for the Mariners. He’s seen the Yankees’ lineup before — and shut them down — and looks to continue on his already impressive 2022 campaign.

As for Cole,  you know what you’re going to get from him. He’s the ace of the Yankees and always in Cy Young contention. Despite his rollercoaster July, I wouldn’t be too worried against a struggling Mariners offense without Rodriguez and most likely France.

Tack on the fact that the Yankees’ bullpen is elite and the Mariners’ backend can compete with MLB’s best, and I think this is a low-scoring series finale.

The Yankees are strongly favored and rightfully so, but I do think there’s value on the under in the Bronx on Wednesday.

Pick: Under 7.5 (-120) | Down to Under 7 (+100)

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