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Marlins vs. Mets MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Sandy Alcantara, Miami to Win NL East Showdown (Sunday, July 10)

Marlins vs. Mets MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Sandy Alcantara, Miami to Win NL East Showdown (Sunday, July 10) article feature image
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Justin Berl/Getty Images. Pictured: Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara.

Marlins vs. Mets Odds

Marlins Odds -105
Mets Odds -115
Over/Under 7
Time 1:40 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

With a 53-32 record, the New York Mets are one of five teams in all of baseball with at least 50 wins this season.

New York leads Atlanta by 2.5 games in the National League East entering Sunday’s clash with the Miami Marlins. The Mets are 28-14 at home, 27-11 against teams under .500 and 7-3 head-to-head against the Miami Marlins this year.

While Miami is 12 games back of New York in the division race at 40-43, they’re only five games out of the second wild-card spot in the National League entering this meeting.

So, the Marlins have as good of a chance to win against the Mets as they ever will with ace pitcher Sandy Alcantara on the mound, but will they get the job done? Let’s take a look to see where we can find some betting value.

Miami Marlins

Alcantara’s xFIP is also higher than his ERA, as he has a 3.93 xFIP this season, but he has also been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball with a 1.82 ERA overall. Alcantara has been a monster on the mound , especially of late.

Two starts ago, Alcantara threw a complete game in St. Louis after convincing his manager to leave him in the game during a jam in the ninth inning. In his last outing against the Angels, he allowed only two hits over eight innings while striking out 10 batters.

While sometimes you can convince yourself there’s value in going against pitchers with over a run difference in their ERA and xFIP, there’s just been zero signs that Alcantara is slowing down at all this season. And although he’s 1-1 against the Mets this season, the time he beat them was in New York as he went eight innings, allowed only two earned runs and struck out eight hitters.

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New York Mets

Mets starter Taijuan Walker has a 2.86 ERA in 14 starts this year despite a 4.19 xFIP overall. Walker isn’t a big-time strikeout pitcher, as he merely has a 19% K%, but his saving grace is that he induces weak contact, allowing a 53% ground-ball percentage.

Walker’s power prevention has been exceptional, as he’s yielded just an .070 ISO to right-handed hitters and a .111 ISO to left-handed hitters. The Marlins’ projected lineup only has two players with ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching in Jesus Sanchez and Bryan De La Cruz.

Walker hasn’t only had a good season, but he’s been consistently good recently. He’s completed at least six innings and allowed no more than three earned runs in each of his last five starts.

Walker also recorded at least nine strikeouts in three of his last five starts. He’s already 2-0 with four earned runs allowed and 14 strikeouts in 12 innings over two starts against the Marlins and should have the upper hand against Miami’s offense once again.

Marlins-Mets Pick

This game is nearly too close to call since I believe the line is almost priced efficiently here.

However, while Las Vegas has decided to make the Mets the slight favorite, I believe it’s the Marlins who should have the slight edge.

This is expected to be a low-scoring game as you can see from the combined implied run total of seven and Miami having the better starting pitcher in Alcantara.

That said, this is one of the rare games where we can expect the starting pitchers to complete at least six innings, so I would avoid the First Five Inning lines and back Miami via a moneyline wager to win outright.

Pick: Florida ML (-105)

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