MLB Odds & Picks for Mets vs. Cubs Game 2: Back Max Scherzer on Road

MLB Odds & Picks for Mets vs. Cubs Game 2: Back Max Scherzer on Road article feature image

Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Max Scherzer (Mets)

  • In game two of their doubleheader, the Mets and Max Scherzer will take the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.
  • Since returning from injury, Scherzer has been solid, which gives the Mets a significant advantage in the ML department.
  • Jules Posner dives into the matchup and explains where the value lies.

Mets vs. Cubs Game 2 Odds

Mets Odds-215
Cubs Odds+185
Time8:05 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The New York Mets and Chicago Cubs square off in game two of their day/night doubleheader on Saturday evening.

The results of the first game shouldn't have too much bearing on the evening matchup, unless the bullpens get used heavily in game one for whatever reason.

The Cubs haven't been particularly good anywhere this season, as they head into the day with a 17-25 home record. On the other side, the Mets have been road warriors, posting a 28-19 road record, good for third best in the National League.

Max Scherzer is on the mound for the Mets in game two, and he'll be taking on veteran left-hander Drew Smyly. Obviously, the Mets have a huge edge anytime Scherzer is on the mound, but if Smyly is right, the Cubs could have a puncher's chance in game two.

Will Mets' Weakness Come Back to Bite Them?

Scherzer gets the nod in game two, and he's picked up right where he left off before he sustained an oblique injury.

In his two starts back, Scherzer has posted a 0.69 ERA, a 1.27 FIP and a 1.87 xFIP. It's a small sample, but he looks like the same old pitcher.

One interesting element surrounding the Mets in this matchup is despite all of their right-handed hitting talent, their worst split comes on the road against LHP.

This season, the Mets only have a 93 team wRC+ against LHP on the road and over the past month, they've only posted an 88 wRC+ against LHP on the road. This has been one area of weakness for the Mets and has been an issue for them all season long.

Keep Eye on Smyly's Performance

The Cubs' game two starter, Smyly, is left-handed. That's good news.

While Smyly has shown flashes of his 2020 form at times, he's never returned to the level of success he achieved in a Giants uniform. That — and health — continues to be an issue for the talented left-hander.

Smyly hasn't pitched a lot at home this season, but when he has, he's been mediocre. Over 16 2/3 home innings, Smyly holds a 4.86 ERA, 5.21 FIP and 4.15 xFIP.

A big reason for his decline from 2020 is he's not racking up strikeouts like he was previously. His K/9 has decreased almost by half and his HR/9 rate has almost doubled.

Additionally, he's still tailed by a struggling Cubs offense that in all probability will fail to get anything going against Scherzer.

Mets-Cubs Pick

While the Cubs may have a puncher's chance in this game, it may be like that Simpson's episode where Homer fights Drederick Tatum. Remember when Homer finds the inspiration to throw a haymaker at Tatum, only to miss and get bonked on the head? Kinda seems like that.

The Mets' runline seems to have the best value in this matchup. The under has some appeal, but without knowing what Smyly has to offer in terms of reliable samples, the total shouldn't be the play here.

The Mets are sitting around -1.5 runs at -125 odds, which is fine. Play this to -140 or better. If it moves to -2.5 and plus money, that can also be in play.

Pick: Mets RL -125

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