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Mets vs. Giants Odds, Picks, Predictions: New York Lineup Should Back Rookie Starter (Wednesday, May 25)

Mets vs. Giants Odds, Picks, Predictions: New York Lineup Should Back Rookie Starter (Wednesday, May 25) article feature image
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G Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Francisco Lindor.

Mets vs. Giants Odds

Mets Odds +110
Giants Odds -130
Over/Under 8.5
Time 3:45 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Today, we get a rubber match after a game for the ages on Tuesday night between the Mets and Giants. Last night, New York came back from six runs down, which was followed by not one, but two comebacks from the Giants.

On the rubber for the Mets this afternoon will be Thomas Szapucki, who will be making his first big-league start. New York will need some length out of the young left-hander after playing a marathon of a game last night.

The Giants will undoubtedly have the edge in experience on the mound with Jake Junis. The former Royals right-hander has fared well as a swingman for San Francisco thus far, but we’ve seen how explosive the Mets offense can be.

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Lefties to Lead the Way for New York

Not only is the man on the mound left-handed for the Mets today, but most of the lineup may be, as well. Junis may come into this start with a 2.70 ERA, but there are many signs that may skyrocket after today.

Junis has been extremely fortunate thus far when you consider the amount and quality of contact he’s allowed. He is a slider-sinker guy who pitches to contact and relies on producing ground balls. To his credit, he’s done that very well this season with a 48& ground-ball rate.

However, this Mets team will be happy to put the ball in play, and the underlying metrics show Junis has gotten away with more than his fair share of mistakes. He is in the bottom 40% of qualified pitchers in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate.

As I said before, Junis relies heavily on his slider (he throws it 54% of the time), but it has not been an effective weapon against lefties. Left-handed hitters have hit .288 off Junis in his career, and he’ll see plenty of them today with the likes of Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo and Eduardo Escobar being staples of the Mets lineup.


Szapucki’s Inexperience Provides an Edge

Szapucki got a taste of the big leagues as he stepped into mop-up duty last June against the eventual World Series-champion Atlanta Braves. Unfortunately, it did not go well. He was tagged for six earned runs over 3 2/3 innings.

Szapucki could enjoy much more success against this Giants lineup this time around. He has been in the Mets’ top prospect rankings for years now, but since he’s only made one big-league appearance, the opposition won’t have much information on him.

The lefty will feature a three-pitch mix that includes a fastball that sits between 91-93 mph, a changeup at 84 mph with some arm side sink and a curveball that is his bread and butter.

Szapucki’s curveball is regarded as the reason why he can succeed at the big-league level. It has great depth and spin, which has made it very effective against hitters on both sides of the plate in the minors.

Szapucki has had a tremendous season in Triple-A, with a 2.86 ERA over seven starts and had an impressive 12.27 K/9.

In his first career start, he’ll face a Giants lineup that has been middle of the pack against left-handers this year, although San Francisco has guys like Wilmer Flores, Darin Ruf, and Evan Longoria, who have been particularly good against lefties in their careers.

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Mets-Giants Pick

While there is a lot of uncertainty around Szapucki, that may play to his advantage given San Francisco’s lack of familiarity with him.

The Mets lineup should give the rookie plenty of support given the great matchup against Junis. If the Mets can get at least five innings out of Szapucki, they should be in excellent shape to take this rubber match and clinch their 12th series victory of the season.

Pick: Mets +110

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