The Atlanta Braves host the Miami Marlins on April 13, 2026. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on BravesVsn.
The Braves are favored by -149 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Marlins are +123 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Marlins vs Braves prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Marlins vs Braves Prediction
- Marlins vs Braves Picks: Austin Riley 1+ Strikeout, Ronald Acuna 1+ Strikeout, Eury Perez Under 6.5 Hits Allowed
My Marlins vs Braves best bet is a same game parlay combining Austin Riley and Ronald Acuna to record 1+ strikeout and Eury Perez to stay under 6.5 hits allowed.
Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Braves Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -171 | 8 -116o / -104u | +123 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +141 | 8 -116o / -104u | -149 |
- Marlins vs Braves spread: Marlins +1.5 (-171), Braves -1.5 (+141)
- Marlins vs Braves over/under: 8 (-116o / -104u)
- Marlins vs Braves moneyline: Marlins +123, Braves -149
Marlins vs Braves Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Eury Perez (MIA) | Stat | RHP Grant Holmes (ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 1-1 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 5.06/5.02 | ERA /xERA | 2.55/3.23 |
| 6.20/4.67 | FIP / xFIP | 4.39/4.62 |
| 1.38 | WHIP | 1.08 |
| 12.7% | K-BB% | 8.5% |
| 36.6% | GB% | 32.7% |
| 118 | Stuff+ | 90 |
| 88 | Location+ | 97 |
Marlins vs Braves Preview
Miami Marlins Betting Preview
It's an Eury Perez night for the Marlins, and this will be a challenge for the young (this kid is still just 22 years old, which you might be surprised to hear) righty. The Braves lineup has plenty of pop and has made life tough on a lot of fly ball pitchers like Perez. The weather is unlikely to do the pitchers many favors in this one as the first-pitch temperature will be around 80 degrees.
It's tough to know exactly what we'll get from Perez on any given night. The stuff is not in question, his Stuff+ marks are up there among the league leaders, and he's no stranger to the whiff with a swinging strike rate above 15% in the early going. There will be highlight reel pitches made all season from the kid.
But there's bad news as well. His command has not been there (13% BB% so far with a much too high 38.8% Ball%). The silver lining on that front is a career 8.7% BB% in his 202 innings, which is only slightly above the league average.
We do expect Eury to end up with a single-digit walk rate this year. The pre-season projections, which are still more trustworthy than three starts worth of data, all had him being around a league-average walk guy.
The thing I'm always more worried about with Eury is the super high fly ball rate. He gives up a lot of fly balls, and fly balls turn into homers, especially on hot days against the Braves' lineup. So I'm never confident in betting on Perez to limit runs.
What I do feel good about, which I've already alluded to, is a good return in the K:BB department. His 5.06 ERA shows you some of his problems this year, but his career 3.88 SIERA shows you that he's at least a decent run preventer with loads of upside given the electricity of his stuff and pitch mix.
I would expect Eury, as a guy who throws a bunch of four-seamers and slider, to not have great strikeout numbers against right-handed pitchers. But going back to last year, we see strong strike-earning abilities against both sides of the plate (26% K%, 13.7% SwStr% vs. RHB, 28% K%, 15% SwStr% vs. LHB).
And the Braves, for all of their thump, profile as about a league-average offense in the strikeout department. They're patient as well with a 9% BB% against righties dating back to last year.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview
Grant Holmes is the guy on the other side of this matchup. He's off to a nice start with a 2.55 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP this year. Although he's been pretty fortunate with a high strand rate of 86% and a BABIP allowed of .191. There's regression, in the bad sense, coming for Holmes.
What I really want to point out is Holmes' erratic command. He has an 11% BB% dating back to last year, and the early 2026 ball rate of 38.8% (36% is the league average, and one point is a significant difference in this stat) suggests he hasn't improved.
The Marlins currently hold the league's second-lowest swing rate at 43%. They're very patient. Patience turns into walks. Their team 9% BB% isn't among the league leaders, but if the low swing rate maintains, that walk number will increase for the fish.
So I think we'll see at least a couple of Grant Holmes walks in this one. He's walked at least two in 13 straight starts, and the Marlins are an offense that is looking to exploit that.
Marlins vs Braves Picks
There are no pitcher walks lines out by the time I have to submit this. We've typically been getting over 2.5 for around +140. What I really want to do is something like this:
- Eury Perez over 5.5 K (-230)
- Grant Holmes over 1.5 BB (-175)
That should give you around an even money return or possibly even +120. But I can't put that on the board because the walk lines aren't there. My official recommended pick is going to delve into the batter strikeouts market to bet on Eury that way.
Picks: Austin Riley 1+ Strikeout, Ronald Acuna 1+ Strikeout, Eury Perez Under 6.5 Hits Allowed (+118, DraftKings)
This doesn't subject us to Eury's potential issues with the walk and the long ball. He's not a guy you're typically racking up base knocks against. His bad starts are typically about 2-3 untimely walks and one or two big swings of the bat. He's stayed under 6.5 hits allowed in five of his last six.
As for Acuna and Riley, they both struggle to make contact, specifically against right-handed pitching. The league average contact rate is around 77%. Going back to last year, Acuna is at 71%, and Riley is at 69%.
Good luck out there!
