The Milwaukee Brewers host the Miami Marlins on July 18, 2026. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on BREW.
The Brewers are favored by -134 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Marlins are +114 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Marlins vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Marlins vs Brewers Prediction
- Marlins vs Brewers Pick: Max Meyer Over 5.5 Ks (-120) / Shane Drohan Over 4.5 Ks (-122)
My Marlins vs Brewers best bet is for both starting pitchers to go over their strikeout lines. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Brewers Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -188 | 8 -108o / -112u | +114 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 8 -108o / -112u | -134 |
- Marlins vs Brewers moneyline: Marlins +114, Brewers -134
- Marlins vs Brewers over/under: 8 (-108o / -112u)
- Marlins vs Brewers spread: Marlins +1.5 (-188), Brewers -1.5 (+155)
Marlins vs Brewers Probable Pitchers
| Max Meyer (RHP, MIA) | Stat | Shane Drohan (LHP, MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-1 | W-L | 4-3 |
| 2.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 2.58 / 3.79 | ERA / xERA | 3.09 / 3.36 |
| 3.53 / 3.74 | FIP / xFIP | 3.24 / 3.86 |
| 17.5 | K-BB% | 16.1 |
| 41.6 | GB% | 41.8 |
| .259 | BABIP | .294 |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 106 | Location+ | 105 |
Marlins vs Brewers MLB Betting Preview
American Family Field in Milwaukee boosts strikeouts by 12% for LHBs and 5% for RHBs with the roof closed. With it open, those numbers increase to 15% and 10%.
With temperatures expected in the mid-80s and clear skies, the only reason they may close the roof is air quality. Either way, it’s a significant Ks boost.
Scheduled umpire Derek Thomas also increases strikeouts by 4-5%.
Projecting Max Meyer to see 24 batters should mean 14 from the left-hand side, considering the Brewers standard lineup against RHP.
Meyer has struck out LHBs at a 29.1% rate this season and RHBs at just 21.9%. The standard Milwaukee lineup against RHIP averages a 22.3 K% against RHP this season through the first 24 batters.
Projecting Shane Drohan to see just 22 batters may mean up to 17 from the right-hand side, with only Liam Hicks and Kyle Stowers currently projected from the left-hand side, though the Marlins lineup has a bit more variance on a day-to-day basis.
Drohan would get the smaller park boost (projected at 7% to Meyer’s 9%), but does not drop off as much as Meyer between splits, striking out RHBs 23.6% and LHBs 21.5%, respectively.
However, the first 22 batters through BARTOLO’s projected lineup average a 24.4 K% against LHP this season.
Marlins vs Brewers Pick, Betting Analysis
Milwaukee and Seattle have been a pair of parks where I’ve been playing strikeout props quite often since adjusting my projections to include park and weather effects, as well as umpiring.
Seattle is a well-known strikeout booster and is still often mispriced, but I don’t think the market is really clued into Milwaukee as much. Consider Drohan’s 26.3 K% at home and 18.9% on the road.
I’m playing both pitchers to exceed their strikeout props in strong spots here.
Picks: Max Meyer Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120), 0.6u, Shane Drohan Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-122), 0.61u (FanDuel | Bet both to -140
