We have a 16-game slate today, starting at 1:10 PM ET with the first game of a doubleheader between the Pirates and Guardians at Progressive Field, and closing with Tigers vs Angels at Angel Stadium at 10:07 PM ET.
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for Saturday, July 18.
Below are 5 expert MLB best bets today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:10 PM | |
  | 2:20 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 8:08 PM | |
  | 10:05 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Nick Galaida's Pirates vs Guardians Best Bet
By Nick Galaida
No team goes into Game 1 of a doubleheader thinking that they will get fewer than five innings from their starter.
Jared Jones is on a workload restriction, but the Pirates' plan A will certainly be to get him through 15 outs.
The smoke in the area remains problematic, which could be a slight benefit for pitching if it's affecting hitters' visibility at all.
This is a very playable price for a talented pitcher against a light-hitting Guardians offense.
Pick: Jared Jones Over 14.5 Outs (-160 or Better)
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Tony Sartori's Twins vs Cubs Best Bet
By Tony Sartori
Matthew Boyd has historically struggled against Minnesota. Over the past 18 meetings, the Cubs starter carries a 5.16 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.
The clear pitching advantage in this matchup goes to Taj Bradley and the Twins, as he outranks Boyd in nearly every statistical and analytical category across the board. That just leaves the hitting, which is a wash.
This season, both teams rank in the top 10 in runs scored per game, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS. It's also worth noting that Minnesota outranks Chicago in hits per game, batting average and slugging percentage.
Pick: Twins ML (+125 or Better)
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Sean Zerillo's Rangers vs Braves Best Bet
By Sean Zerillo
I project some value on the Under in this game.
If you want to dive deeper into this matchup, I recommend checking out BARTOLO, our new PRO baseball betting tool giving PRO subscribers access to all the data I use to project MLB games every day.
Here's a sneak peek of what BARTOLO spits out for Rangers–Braves:
Pick: Under 9 (-118 or Better)
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Sean Paul's Dodgers vs Yankees Best Bet
By Sean Paul
The Dodgers will give the ball to Emmet Sheehan in Game 2 from the Bronx.
Sheehan has finally gotten a full-time look in the Dodgers' rotation, and it's been a mixed bag. He owns a 4.81 ERA, but his 3.88 xERA and 4.34 FIP would indicate some bad luck. There's some good and bad to take away from Sheehan's numbers.
The Yankees will give the ball to Ryan Weathers, whom I'll call the "southpaw Emmet Sheehan". That's due to his reliance on strikeouts (10.14 K/9) AND his home run troubles (1.47 HR/9).
To me, the bigger issue with backing the Yankees, even as slight road dogs against a team like the Dodgers, is the current state of their offense.
The Yankees' offense is porous right now. The only team with a worse wRC+ (73) over their past 21 games than New York is the Athletics.
The biggest concern is their 28% strikeout rate (30th) and 6.5% walk rate (29th). Most of their ABs aren't even good; it's just a bad plate approach, which makes me wary to back them against an elite team like the Dodgers.
Pick: Dodgers ML (-135 or Better)
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Matt Trollo's Nationals vs Athletics Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
Batters from the left-hand side exceed a .385 wOBA and xwOBA against Zack Littell this year and are within four points of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against J.T. Ginn.
It's not ideal to have Nick Kurtz unavailable in this game, but even without him, both lineups are projected to send more LHBs than RHBs to the plate against these pitchers, and I still have the projected Athletics’ lineup averaging an even 100 wRC+ against RHP this year and 113 at home.
Remember that wRC+ is supposedly a park-neutral number, meaning it strips the 23% boost to run scoring that this park in Sacramento provides.
The Washington projected lineup averages a 106 wRC+ against RHP and has averaged a 120 wRC+ overall for the last month. This has been one of the better offenses in the league all year long.
Getting back to the starting pitchers, I have Ginn rated about three-quarters of a run better than Littell. BARTOLO has the gap around half a run, but we both still have each pitcher around four and a half or higher.
The Washington defense has been below average as a team, but the projected lineup has accumulated 6 FRV. However, the A’s have not only been one of the worst defensive teams (-22 Runs Prevented and -25 OAA are both 2nd-worst in the majors), but their projected lineup totals are -13 FRV, despite a few small sample sizes.
Lastly, both bullpens' average estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) are bottom third of the league over the last 30 days, with the A’s being 2nd worst in the league once again, while BARTOLO also sees a pair of bottom third of the league bullpens for the season, including Washington with the absolute worst relief unit.
Pick: Over 10.5 (Bet to 11)
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