The Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets on July 18, 2026. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH.
The Phillies are favored by -170 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Mets are +140 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mets vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mets vs Phillies Prediction
- Mets vs Phillies Pick: Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 Singles (+155, betMGM)
My Mets vs Phillies best bet is for Alvarez to record 1+ singles. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Phillies Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +140 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -170 |
- Mets vs Phillies moneyline: Mets +140, Phillies -170
- Mets vs Phillies over/under: 8.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Mets vs Phillies spread: Phillies -1.5 (+125), Mets +1.5 (-150)
Mets vs Phillies Probable Pitchers
| Sean Manaea | Stat | Jesus Luzardo |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | W-L | 8-4 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.3 |
| 4.56 / 4.23 | ERA / xERA | 3.51 / 2.97 |
| 4.14 / 4.13 | FIP / xFIP | 2.84 / 2.90 |
| 15.2 | K-BB% | 21.8 |
| 39.3 | GB% | 50.5 |
| .305 | BABIP | .330 |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 110 |
| 97 | Location+ | 104 |
Mets vs Phillies MLB Betting Preview
Action PRO projects Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez for 0.73 singles in tonight's matchup against the Phillies, giving us a solid 12.6% edge against the market when compared to his current prop line of over/under 0.5, which is good enough to tag the Over with a B+ grade in our system.
Mets vs Phillies Pick, Betting Analysis
Alvarez has recorded 37 singles so far this season and has gone over this line in three of his past five games and five of his last 10. Given that he only needs a single knock to cash this ticket, the mathematical value heavily favors the Over.
The catcher is experiencing a strong stretch of production at the plate, hitting .333 (8-for-24) over his last 7 games. He's coming off a massive performance on July 16 where he slugged two home runs against Philadelphia, demonstrating that he is seeing the ball incredibly well in this series.
With his confidence sky-high and his bat speed perfectly locked in, Alvarez is making the kind of consistent contact needed to exploit this line. Given the double-digit advantage provided by the PRO model, backing his Over 0.5 singles is easily the sharpest way to play this matchup.
Pick: Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 Singles (+155, betMGM)
