The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Milwaukee Brewers on July 4, 2026. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on ARID.
The Brewers are -148 on the moneyline and -1.5 (+106) on the run line. The Diamondbacks are +126 on the moneyline and +1.5 (+106) on the run line. The total is set at 9.5 runs (-105 / -115)
Find my MLB picks and Brewers vs Diamondbacks prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Prediction
- Brewers vs Diamondbacks Pick: Brewers F5 ML (-160 or Better)
My Brewers vs Diamondbacks best bet is on Milwaukee. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +106 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | -148 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -128 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | +126 |
- Brewers vs Diamondbacks moneyline: Brewers -148, Diamondbacks +126
- Brewers vs Diamondbacks over/under: 9.5 (-105 / -115)
- Brewers vs Diamondbacks spread: Brewers -1.5 (+106), Diamondbacks +1.5 (-128)
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Kalshi MLB Odds
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers
| Brandon Woodruff (RHP, MIL) | Stat | Merrill Kelly (RHP, ARI) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 5-8 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.7 |
| 2.59 / 2.84 | ERA / xERA | 5.84 / 7.55 |
| 3.11 / 4.08 | FIP / xFIP | 6.11 / 5.38 |
| 20.0% | K-BB% | 3.9% |
| 25.9% | GB% | 37.7% |
| .210 | BABIP | .282 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 104 | Location+ | 101 |
Brewers vs Diamondbacks MLB Betting Preview
I suffered a brutal beat on Diamondbacks +1.5 yesterday.
I got in early on the Snakes run line at -120, which proved to be the correct move, as the line closed -150. I was right that the Diamondbacks would have success against Kyle Harrison, who was out by the third inning. Arizona matched the Brewers step for step until extra innings happened.
Why spend the first paragraph recapping yesterday’s game? Because I think it has a huge impact on the bet for this game. I love this matchup for the Brewers, but their bullpen is gassed after covering over eight frames yesterday, so I don’t want to mess with the later innings.
Arizona ranks dead last among MLB lineups in wRC+ against right-handed pitching (82), and I think Brandon Woodruff likely spins at least five innings on the 4th (he’s pitched 6 and 5 ⅔, respectively, in his past two starts since returning from injury).
Woodruff is also a good pitcher. He ranks among the top 10% of qualified pitchers in xERA and xBA. He’s a fly-ball pitcher who can be prone to allowing long balls, but he also doesn’t allow much traffic on the basepaths (.84 WHIP).
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Pick, Betting Analysis
Arizona will need more than solo shots to beat Milwaukee because the Brewers might score at will on Saturday night.
Merrill Kelly is one of MLB’s worst starting pitchers. He turns 38 this season, and his Stuff+ rating has finally dropped below 90 for the first time in his career, alongside plenty of other career-worst metrics.
Kelly currently holds the title for the worst xERA (7.57) and xBA (.310) among pitchers with at least 50 innings thrown this season. And that’s not a fluke, because he has no strikeout stuff and allows an insane 14% barrel rate.
In most other organizations, Kelly has already been sent back down to Triple-A. But Arizona’s staff is banged up, and there’s not much starting pitching talent in Reno, so the Snakes will keep trotting Kelly out there every five or six days.
Given how much I expect the Brew Crew to score, I think there are several ways to play this game. But my best bet on this game is the F5 ML.
Pick: Brewers F5 ML (-160 or Better)
