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The Milwaukee Brewers host the San Diego Padres on October 4, 2026. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on Fox Sports 1.
The Brewers are favored by -140 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Padres are +120 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Brewers Prediction
- Padres vs Brewers Pick: Brewers ML (-140)
My Padres vs Brewers best bet is on Milwaukee to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Padres vs Brewers Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 7 -115o / -105u | +120 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7 -115o / -105u | -140 |
- Padres vs Brewers moneyline: Padres +120, Brewers -140
- Padres vs Brewers over/under: 7 (-115o / -105u)
- Padres vs Brewers spread: Padres +1.5 (-185), Brewers -1.5 (+155)
Padres vs Brewers Probable Pitchers
| Michael King (RHP, SD) | Stat | Logan Henderson (RHP, MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-10 | W-L | 11-3 |
| 2.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.4 |
| 3.21 / 4.40 | ERA / xERA | 2.47 / 2.73 |
| 4.13 / 4.34 | FIP / xFIP | 3.32 / 3.30 |
| 11.8 | K-BB% | 24.5 |
| 44.6 | GB% | 30.7 |
| .259 | BABIP | .220 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 101 | Location+ | 108 |
Padres vs Brewers MLB Betting Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
It would seem like a scheduling quirk that the Padres and Brewers play Saturday night’s late game, yet are back for the afternoon affair on Sunday. However, it’s not much different from a standard Saturday night/Sunday afternoon turnaround. The timing shouldn’t have much impact, as Saturday’s game didn't go to extra innings.
Michael King gets his second go-around of this post-season, threatening to no-hit the Cubs on Tuesday before leaving after allowing his first hit in the 7th inning.
He faced 26 Cubs, striking out eight without a walk. King was up at least 0.9 mph on every pitch, including an average 2.5 mph increase on his sweeper, which he threw 36% of the time, up 19% on the season, to generate seven of his 17 whiffs. His changeup went from 26% seasonal usage to 12% to make up the difference.
King produced a swing-and-miss on every pitch he threw and at least two on all he threw more than 10 times, adding not only 1.3 mph to his fastball but also an inch of IVB (16 to 15). Overall, 64% of his pitches were strikes. It was an incredible performance against the league’s best offense by wRC+ this season.
Some may think that’s par for the course, coming off a 3.21 ERA during the regular season, but that was supported by an 80.3 LOB% and career-best .259 BABIP, while King’s 11.8 K-BB% was the worst of his career.
He did navigate well with a 32.6 HardHit% in line with his career 33.9% rate, though his 8.2% Barrels/BBE were close to league average.
King’s estimators ranged from a 4.13 FIP to a 4.55 Bot ERA (97 Pitching+), but outside his FIP and pitch modeling (career worst), the remaining indicators bunched more tightly between a 4.33 dERA and 4.42 xERA, which is exactly where I have him for the season.
Can he repeat Tuesday’s performance on standard four-day rest? Even if he continues to pitch with improved stuff and command (pitch modeling does not appear to give post-season grades on Fangraphs), the odds are still against pitching that well again.
While King exhibited a small reverse split this year with LHBs owning a 21-point lower wOBA, they also had a 13-point higher xwOBA than RHBs, with batters from either side of the plate between .287 and .327 by either metric.
No projected Brewers stood out against the pitches King throws from a run value standpoint, with Jake Bauers and Jackson Chourio the only two to run a slightly positive run value against his arsenal.
King did face these Brewers once this season, back in May, throwing 5.2 innings of one-run ball with five strikeouts.
Using their projected lineup, the Brewers average a stunning 120 wRC+ at home, 117 vs RHP and 121 wRC+ over the last 30 days of the season.
Only one projected Brewer (Cooper Pratt 57) sat below a 100 wRC+ at home this year. Luis Lara (88) is the low man against RHP by 11 points, while each of the first six projected batters exceeded a .150 ISO. Lara (41) and Christian Yelich (81) are the only projected Brewers to run below a 110 wRC+ over the last month of the season. Don’t be fooled into thinking this Milwaukee lineup lacks pop.
King was slightly above average at holding runners, accumulating 1 Net Bases Prevented with attempted steals on only 1.3% of 1,057 chances.
Only seven catchers accumulated more than Luis Campusano’s 4 Catchers CS Above Average, throwing out 36% of attempted steals. Ethan Salas had too small a sample size to be considered, but while the Brewers had seven players with more than 10 steals, this should be a difficult combination to run on.
Team leader David Hamilton (30) is not projected to start. Jackson Chourio (23) was the only other Brewer to reach 20 steals.
Defense is a major calling card for both these teams, each accumulating 18 OAA this season (8th), though the Padres accumulated one fewer Run Prevented (14) on a team level.
Sunday’s projected defense sits at 32 FRV (Fielding Run Value) this season (36 with Gavin Sheets at DH rather than in the field), with Jackson Merrill (12), Ty France (10), and Manny Machado (8) all standouts.
We know what the San Diego pen is, and that’s best in the league, according to BARTOLO, without even adding backend starters for a postseason series. If the Padres have the lead in the last third of the game, the Brewers are in trouble.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
If you don’t know who Logan Henderson is, you may be in for a treat. The 24-year-old right-hander started 18 games for the Brewers this season with a 24.5 K-BB% that would be top five among qualified pitchers, but he only pitched 98.1 innings. Drop the qualifier to 80 innings, and he’s 6th, 0.5 percentage points behind Cam Schlittler.
Henderson has done this while allowing a near league-average 8.3% Barrels/BBE, but with just a 36.9% hard-hit rate, while producing as many pop-ups (14) as home runs.
This generated a 2.74 xERA, which was the closest estimator to his 2.47 ERA. It’s true that Henderson benefited from a .220 BABIP and 87 LOB%, which are nowhere near sustainable, but a 3.69 dERA was still his only indicator above three and a half and his worst by more than one-third of a run.
Henderson did not allow more than three runs in any start this season and only that many thrice. One of those three-run outings was against the Padres, but he struck out seven of 24 batters in a quality start with both of his barrels leaving the yard.
Leading with his 93.1 mph, 15.2 iVB fastball 46.2% of the time, Henderson will complement with a changeup (35.2%), cutter (15.3% ), and 3.1% sweepers. All three main pitches exceed 55 PitchingBot and 100 Pitching+ grades.
The changeup was his best swing-and-miss pitch (19.1%), while batters only exceeded an 85 wRC+ on the cutter.
Despite his changeup success, Henderson did have a standard split, though all batters sat below a .275 wOBA and xwOBA against him, with RHBs below .240.
Henderson was not afraid to throw his fastball (48% to LHBs, 44% to RHBs) or changeup (39%, 26%) to batters from either side of the plate, but threw fewer cutters to LHBs (11%/23%) and almost all of his sweepers to RHBs (7%).
No projected San Diego batter matches up well against his fastball, except Ethan Salas in a very small sample. Dustin Harris (another small sample) and Ty France fared well against changeups. Those are the only three batters who even run slightly positive run value matchups against Henderson’s pitches, though Fernando Tatis Jr. just about breaks even.
On Saturday, the Padres elected to play two catchers to get Luis Campusano’s right-handed bat in there against Jacob Misiorowski’s reverse splits, but Rotowire replaces him with Gavin Sheets at DH on Sunday.
The projected San Diego lineup averages a strong 120 wRC+ on the road, 112 vs RHP and 131 wRC+ over the last month of the season.
Jake Cronenworth (85) is the only projected Padre below a 95 wRC+ on the road and the only one below a 99 wRC+ against RHP with an 83 mark. His 88 wRC+ is also the only projected Padre below average over the last 30 days of the season.
In a smaller sample, Henderson (1 Net Bases Prevented) held runners as well as King with only 1.2% of 407 opportunities to run taken.
William Contreras was one of those seven catchers, exceeding Campusano’s 4 CSAA with 5. He threw out 28% of steal attempts. Tatis Jr. stole a team-leading 38 bases, with Merrill (27) and Xander Bogaerts (22) the other two main threats.
As mentioned above, both teams play great defense, tied at 8th most OAA (18th) and the Brewers 7th in Runs Prevented (15), one more than the Padres. The projected lineup’s 30 FRV is just two fewer than San Diego, with Brice Turang (14) and Joey Ortiz (12) making up an elite infield. Projected DH Christian Yelich (0) neither adds nor subtracts.
Milwaukee currently has BARTOLO’s 5th-best bullpen, potentially stacked with LHPs if it absorbs the back end of their rotation (Kyle Harrison, Shane Drohan, Robert Gasser). For most of the season, the Padres ran only a few LHBs against RHBs, but Sunday’s projected lineup includes five, including three of the last four.
Padres vs Brewers Pick, Betting Analysis
With temperatures below 60 degrees on Saturday night, it was an easy choice to close the roof in Milwaukee. With an early forecast in the mid-60s for Sunday afternoon, the decision isn’t as clear.
This matters because with the roof closed, Milwaukee is one of the toughest run environments in the league, playing 8% below average. That adjusts to merely 2% below average with the roof open.
While the park generally increases strikeouts around 10% with the roof closed, that increases an additional 5% with the roof open.
Right-handed home runs also go from 2% above average to 18% with the roof open, though LHBs' home runs drop from 3% to 1% above average.
Scheduled umpire Lance Barrett is perfectly neutral from a run-scoring perspective, while enhancing strikeouts by 4%.
I struggled with how to handle King’s start against the Cubs. I settled for a very minor boost. Henderson may end up having the same adrenaline boost in his first post-season start.
In the end, I still have Henderson nearly a run ahead of King, where I see BARTOLO is a bit closer to three quarters, more by bringing Henderson up to three and a half than by dropping King down.
Offensively, I give the Brewers a very small edge, basically equal to the difference between their lineups against RHP (five points of wRC+).
I give neither team a defensive edge. You could argue the Padres have a few more FRV on the field, but the Brewers could have five more BRR (Base Running Runs) and are at home.
Finally, I’ll abide by BARTOLO’s bullpen rankings, giving the Padres a small to moderate edge.
I certainly haven’t seen enough to wipe out Milwaukee’s starting pitching edge in this game. It remains a sizeable gap even after considering bullpens.
Pick: Brewers ML (-140, bet365)
