The Washington Nationals host the Minnesota Twins on May 7, 2026. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NATS.
The Twins are favored by -112 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Nationals are -104 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Twins vs Nationals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Twins vs Nationals Prediction
- Twins vs Nationals Pick: Luke Keaschall 1+ Stolen Base (+490, 0.2u)
My Twins vs Nationals best bet is on Luke Keaschall to steal a base. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Twins vs Nationals Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 9 -105o / -115u | -112 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 9 -105o / -115u | -104 |
- Twins vs Nationals moneyline: Twins -112, Nationals -104
- Twins vs Nationals over/under: 9 (-105 / -115)
- Twins vs Nationals spread: Twins -1.5 (+146), Nationals +1.5 (-178)
Twins vs Nationals Probable Pitchers
| Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP, MIN) | Stat | Jake Irvin (RHP, WSN) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | W-L | 1-4 |
| -0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 6.49 / 5.20 | ERA / xERA | 4.93 / 4.81 |
| 6.46 / 5.84 | FIP / xFIP | 4.04 / 4.26 |
| 1.9% | K-BB% | 15.6% |
| 37.8% | GB% | 37.5% |
| .322 | BABIP | .283 |
| 87 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 97 | Location+ | 98 |
Twins vs Nationals MLB Betting Preview
Minnesota Twins Betting Preview
Simeon Woods Richardson is sporting a career-worst 1.9% K-BB, a season after a career-best 13% K-BB. He has a season high of four strikeouts. In fact, he has struck out exactly two in five of his seven starts, including three straight.
This is a massive problem because he’s also been a launching pad (9.7% Barrels/BBE career, 9.3% this year), despite a reasonable career 39.4% HardHit rate allowed because only 39.4% of his contact has been on the ground. More balls in the air equals more barrels.
With a matching 6.49 ERA and 6.47 FIP, perhaps he’s been a bit unfortunate with 67% of his barrels leaving the yard, but it’s not like his 5.22 xERA is good, and it's the best of his non-pitch modeling estimators.
A 4.95 Bot ERA and 88 Pitching+ are also the worst marks of his career. His only above-average pitch is the curveball, which he’s thrown 4.4% of the time this year (10% career). In fact, it’s his only above-average grading pitch for his career, so either he should throw it more, or maybe it only grades well because he never throws it.
Throwing fastballs or splitters to lefties 77% of the time this year, Woods Richardson has managed a reverse split (righties: .441 wOBA, LHBs .381), which is a repeat of last season (.312, .303).
Again, none of this is good. The fastball velocity is down 0.7 MPH to 92.5 MPH, and it has not gotten higher than 92.1 MPH in three straight starts and five of his past six.
The Nationals don’t really have a set lineup against righties. They’ve been experimenting recently, and I’ve seen a few different projected lineups. Going with the one they’ve used most often this week has just a 96 wRC+ over the last 30 days and 89 wRC+ against righties since last season.
They have a team wRC+ of 94 at home and 86 vs RHP this year.
Woods Richardson's splitter already has a -10 Run Value (he’s thrown just 172). His slider already has a -5 Run Value too (154 thrown, 35% to righties, 17% to lefties).
It’s not that the Nationals are above average against these pitches, but they do match up favorably against Woods Richardson all the way down the projected lineup from a pitch run value perspective because his results have been so bad.
Woods Richardson hasn’t been terrible at holding runners (1 Net Bases Prevented), and Keibert Ruiz has been average at throwing them out (0 CS Above Average) — we can project both first-string catchers in this day game because both sat last night.
The projected Washington lineup has already accumulated five Base Running Runs, three of those from Nasim Nunez, who is tied for the major league lead in that category and is the only player in the league with two Runs via Stolen Bases. Now, he could only hit even a little (67 wRC+ L30 days).
The Minnesota defense has been in the bottom third of the league by both Runs Prevented and OAA, while the projected defense has accumulated -3 Fielding Run Value. Brooks Lee (-3) and Royce Lewis (-3) present the majority of that problem, as Byron Buxton (2) and Trevor Larnach (2) have been quite good.
The Minnesota pen has been in the bottom quarter of the league over the past 30 days. It’s not quite befitting their 5.38 ERA, but the relief corps has produced a 4.11 FIP/4.83 xFIP/4.45 SIERA over that span.
Washington Nationals Betting Preview
While Woods Richardson barely uses the curveball, it's been a staple of Jake Irvin’s arsenal over the first few years of his career.
In 2024, he threw them 31.9% of the time at 81.1 MPH with 6.2 inches more drop and 3.6 inches more sweep than comparable curveballs. His 4.41 ERA matched his 4.41 FIP with additional estimators even lower.
In 2025, he threw 29.6% curves at 77.8 MPH with just 5.5 inches more drop and five more inches of sweep than comparable pitchers. His 5.70 ERA nearly matched his 5.57 xERA and 5.64 FIP.
This year, Irvin is throwing the curveball less than ever (21.9%) at 77.1 MPH with just 4.7 inches more drop than comparable and 3.4 inches of sweep, per Statcast.
He has a 4.93 ERA that matches a 4.81 xERA, but with the best K-BB of his career (15.6%). Batters have gone from a 145 wRC+ on the pitch in 2025 to -3 this year.
Perhaps it’s because he’s throwing fewer curveballs, but he’s throwing more sinkers (22.1%), and they’re getting crushed (163 wRC+).
Maybe the better picture includes his overall statcast profile for the last three years:
- 2024 9.2% Barrels/BBE, 39.1 HardHit%
- 2025 11.9%, 47.1%
- 2026 12.7%, 47.9%
I thought the deeper research would bring me to a stronger conclusion, but it’s just that different pitches are getting smashed this year than the ones that were getting destroyed last year.
Maybe there’s a mix that works, but he hasn’t found it yet.
On a more positive note, Irvin has found a way to strike out 25.3% of the batters he’s faced this year and push his SIERA below four (3.91), but that’s his only indicator we can say that about. Others run as high as a 4.83 xERA with the contact profile mentioned above.
The 10.4% swinging-strike rate is a career high, as is the 19.3% on the curveball. I don’t really understand why this might be, except for the lesser frequency.
While Irvin has held righties to a league average .314 wOBA and xwOBA since last season, lefties have pummelled him to the tune of a .370 wOBA and .388 xwOBA.
However, it’s a pair of righties (Byron Buxton and Austin Martin) who match up best against him from a pitch run value standpoint. Both have hit cutters, sinkers, and sliders well — those pitches make up 63% of Irvin’s arsenal against righties.
Martin has been playing more in Matt Wallner’s place against righties, but considering Irvin’s extreme split, we could see the Twins opt for more Southpaws than the four projected on Thursday.
That projected lineup has a 116 wRC+ over the last 30 days and 108 against righties since last season (.170 ISO). As a team, the Twins have a 97 wRC+ on the road and 99 vs right-handed pitching this season.
While Irvin has been neutral holding base runners (0 NBP), Jeffers has only faced 13 attempts, but also only thrown out two runners, giving him -2 CSAA.
Trevor Larnach and Luke Keaschall have both accumulated a single base running run, accounting for the entire or the projected lineup’s two BRR. Keaschall has been doing it through stolen bases with eight of the team’s 28 so far, twice as many as any other Twin.
The Washington defense has been in the bottom five in MLB in both Runs Prevented and OAA. Again, the projected lineup differs by site for Thursday, but the one I’m using includes C.J. Abrams (-5 FRV), Curtis Mead (-3), and James Wood (-3) as the largest culprits and Nunez (3) doubling as their best base runner and defender.
While the Washington bullpen has an ERA half a run better than Minnesota over the last 30 days, they also have an even worse 4.71 FIP/4.82 xFIP/4.53 SIERA.
The Washington pen is a bit fresher, coming off a 15-2 whipping of the Twins on Wednesday, though.
Twins vs Nationals Pick, Betting Analysis
Washington is a slightly positive run environment (102 Park Run Factor), but could play a bit negatively on Thursday afternoon with temperatures around 60 degrees and little wind (five MPH across or in from the left).
Nate Tomlinson is a neutral umpire who shouldn’t affect the scoring much either way.
Jake Irvin may have the upside of an average pitcher if everything is working, but it hasn’t been, aside from the strikeouts. I still power rate him as more than a run better than Woods Richardson, who has been awful.
The Twins likely have a small offensive edge, while both defenses and bullpens are poor.
This brings me to make this game about even with the home team a small F5 favorite, while the actual market has it about the same, with neither side offering plus-money odds on either full game or F5 as of this writing.
While the pitching and defense would suggest a potential shootout, below-average offense (especially Washington) and weather draw that back somewhat, aligning me with the nine-run game total. The same with both team totals at 4.5.
Nor do I see any wiggle room in either pitcher’s current strikeout prop.
I’m looking at stolen base props, but with Nunez’s 48 wRC+ vs RHP since last season, he’d have to find a way on first.
On the other hand, Keaschall’s stolen base prop is much higher at +490 (FanDuel), and something he may have more of an opportunity to accomplish with his 131 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since last season, combined with Irvin’s numbers against left-handed hitters.
I don’t hate a Buxton Total Base or H+R+RBI play either. Maybe even a Keachall/Buxton SGP (+758 at FanDuel). There's even some correlation there with Keaschall stealing a base and Buxton knocking him in.
Pick: Luke Keaschall 1+ Stolen Base (+490, 0.2u)
