We have a 10-game slate today, starting early with Rangers vs. Yankees at 12:35 p.m. ET and closing with Cardinals vs. Padres at 10:00 p.m. ET.
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for Thursday.
Below are 3 expert MLB picks and predictions for today's slate of games.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent the matchups our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:35 PM | |
  | 3:10 PM | |
  | 6:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Zerillo's Rangers vs Yankees Best Bet
By Sean Zerillo
With Ryan Weathers scratched due to illness and replaced by Paul Blackburn, I now project the total for this game at 8.95 runs.
I bet the Over 8 at -112, and I would bet Over 8.5 at -110 or Better.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110 or Better)
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Tanner McGrath's Mets vs Rockies Over/Under Pick
What are we doing with Jose Quintana?
He’s in the twilight of his career. He’s lost all of his velocity (barely 90 MPH on average), he can’t miss bats (1% K-BB), and he’s on pace for a career-low ground-ball rate (31%).
So, let’s throw him in Colorado! Where he can throw 89 MPH meatballs down the middle at mile-high altitude!
The only reason he's running a 4.07 ERA is because of BABIP (.224) and strand (78%) luck. Once those regress, he should regress to his earned run indicators (5.32 xERA, 6.31 FIP, 6.04 xFIP, 5.09 botERA, -0.1 fWAR).
I have a feeling I’ll be betting plenty of Overs with Quintana on the mound this season, especially when the Rockies suit up in Denver.
On the other side of this matchup, I’m fine with fading Christian Scott.
He’s an enticing prospect, but he’s coming off Tommy John surgery, and the last thing to come back after TJ is control, which explains his 17% walk rate and 94 Location+ rating. He posted a 5.27 ERA and 4.17 FIP across 13 ⅔ Triple-A innings, and he’s since posted a 4.26 ERA and 5.19 xFIP across 6 ⅓ MLB innings.
It’s also worth noting that I power rate the Mets among MLB’s worst defensive teams, which doesn’t help Scott but does help our wager on the Over.
Another thing that helps the Over is Colorado's MLB-worst bullpen.
Ultimately, between Quintana, Scott, New York's defense, Colorado's bullpen, and a +31% weather adjustment (per BallParkPal), I project this total near 14 runs!
While that might be a slight overprojection (I have some modeling tweaks to make at the extremes), BallParkPal's model still projects this total around 12.4.
Pick: Over 11 (-120 or Better)
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Evan Abrams's Orioles vs Marlins MLB Betting System Pick
By Evan Abrams
This game triggered one of our Action PRO Betting Systems:
In Major League Baseball, road underdogs playing interleague games have historically been undervalued by oddsmakers.
Since 2016, despite winning only 43.1% of these games, these teams have generated a consistent positive ROI.
This trend has proven reliable across five consecutive seasons, indicating market inefficiencies in how these specific matchups are priced — likely due to lack of familiarity between leagues and public overconfidence in home and favorite teams.
Pick: Orioles ML (+100 or Better)
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