MLB Best Bets Today | Odds, Picks for Nationals vs Mets, Mariners vs Diamondbacks (Saturday, July 29)
Alika Jenner/Getty Images. Pictured: Julio Rodriguez
It's Saturday and most of the MLB action is taking place under the lights. Angels vs. Blue Jays will get us going this afternoon, but this evening brings with it 14 games and plenty of betting action to be found.
Our MLB analysts are on two games in particular: Nationals vs. Mets and Mariners vs. Diamondbacks.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Saturday, July 29th.
Saturday MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Nationals vs. Mets
By D.J. James
Betting on Patrick Corbin might be a dead-end, but the Washington Nationals have not looked nearly as lost with hitting the ball lately. Carlos Carrasco and the New York Mets will be their opponent on Saturday.
On the season, Corbin owns a 5.01 ERA and 6.13 xERA with an Average Exit Velocity at 91.1 mph and a Hard Hit Rate of 45.2%. He only strikes out 15.8% of hitters, but he also only walks 6.7% of them, which is an added plus to throw deep into the game and negate the Washington bullpen’s impact on this matchup.
Carrasco has been about the same. He has a 5.82 ERA and a 6.13 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 91.3 mph with a Hard Hit Rate at 46.8%. His strikeout rate is 16.3% against a 10.1% walk rate. In fact, Carrasco had to be pulled in his latest outing after yielding five earned runs, 10 hits, and two walks over only 2/3 innings against the Boston Red Sox. He did not even log five innings against the Chicago White Sox in the start before.
This month, the Nationals have a 93 wRC+ off of righties with a .712 OPS. This is not great, but he Mets carry a 67 wRC+ and a .579 OPS off of lefties in July. This is somehow much worse.
The Nats have a July bullpen xFIP of 5.27, which is horrible, but the Mets have a 4.88 bullpen July xFIP. This is not a significant enough advantage for New York, especially if Carrasco puts them in an early hole.
Take the Nationals to +110. They should not be big underdogs in this one.
Pick: Nationals ML (+148)
Mariners vs. Diamondbacks
I think Bryan Woo is a tad undervalued. He’s allowed 10 earned over his past two outings, but he also allowed four home runs, including a grand slam against Toronto.
Before these past two starts, Woo became one of the league’s better young pitchers. He posted a 2.20 ERA in a six-start stretch between June 10 and July 8, generating a 17% swinging-strike rate on his four-seam and an 18% rate on his slider.
On the season, Woo ranks top-20 among starting pitchers in strikeout rate (28.9%), swinging-strike rate (14.9%), and percentage of batted balls with a 95+ mph exit velocity allowed (21.9%).
He’s suffered a slip in his fastball command, but I’m guessing that’s an anomaly.
He’s good! And I think we can buy low on him before this start.
At the minimum, we can bet him against Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt. He’s got a 6.50 xERA behind one of the league’s worst batted-ball profiles.
Cool, you have a super-spinny fastball. But that won’t work if you throw it 94 mph in the zone. Opposing hitters are slugging .710 off the pitch.
You know who crushes four-seam fastballs? Seattle. The Mariners have the second-highest xwOBA (.369) and third-highest barrel rate (12.9%) against the pitch this year.
Over the past 30 days and against righties, Seattle boasts the sixth-best wRC+ (120). Watch out for J.P. Crawford, who’s red-hot in July behind a 13.2% walk rate and a .511 slugging (167 wRC+).
The bullpen ranks third in xFIP during that time (3.68). They’re a tad stretched entering this one, but it’s not too bad.
During the same timeframe, Arizona is 16th in wRC+ against righties (97) and 27th in reliever xFIP (4.95).
We can trust Woo and the M’s to play a more complete baseball game today. There’s value in Seattle in both halves.